Study On Wuhan Vehicle Ecological Footprint Modeling And Forecasting

With the economy and urbanization rapidly developed in wuhan city, urban trafficbecame heavy quickly, in recent years people pay more and more attention to the urbantraffic development. Because the number of private cars grows was widely thought to bethe main cause of wuhan traffic congestion, many academic started to study on how todeveloped the private cars. The ecological footprint theory from a new Angle, in asimple, intuitive, easy way to realized the regional ecological economic balance betweensupply and demand, since it has been put forward,the researchers pay much attention toit, how to operated the ecological footprint in various fields became the hot spot,application in transportation industry was one of them. this paper will use the advancedmeasure method to study the development of private cars in wuhan city firstly.In order to understand the private car effects to the urban traffic environment, andhow to make the urban traffic development sustainable, this paper will use two kind ofmethods to calculate the urban traffic ecological footprint, the first is based on the scaleof urban transportation footprint calculation, calculated the private cars and busesecological footprint respectively and compared them. According to the results,theecological efficiency of bus in Wuhan city is much higher than private cars, so thedeveloped the public transportation is necessary. The second is calculated the footprint ofprivate car from life cycle process angel, the results show that a private car in total lifecycle will take up36.163847hm2ecological footprint, in the life cycle of the car, theused phase was the maximum, accounted for over89%of the total; And from theperspective of ecological footprint calculation project, greenhouse gas emissions ofproductive land area occupied99%of total ecological footprint, greenhouse gasemissions is the main factor impact the Wuhan’s environmental. The paper from thetime series to calculate the total ecological footprint from2003to2015in wuhan, in theother side predicted how many private cars the city could bear, the results show thatwhen the number of private cars more than500000, will not be able to withstand the environment pressure. In order to protect the environment, the paper puts forward thecorresponding environmental protection measures, encouraging people to take publictransportation, establish a emissions statistics mechanism for private car, take a strictlycontrol measures on private car emissions, Suggestions of environment protectiondepartments adopt more stringent vehicle emission standards in order to eliminateoutdated pollution larger models, change the previous tax policy, the governmentencourages the development of green cars, the government policy to encourage thedevelopment of small and medium-sized car repair shops accordingly.