| Flood disaster is the main as well as the most serious disaster in China, which annually caused a large number of casualties and huge economic damage to property. Therefore, it is important to evaluate flood disaster. According to the development of flood disaster, the evaluation can be divided into three parts, including pre-disaster assessment (risk assessment) and post-disaster assessment (damage assessment), this study focuses on risk assessment and loss assessment of regional flood disaster.This paper firstly analyzes the impact factors of regional flood disaster, including natural factors and socio-economic factors, describes and simulates the impact of precipitation, hydrology, economy and population to regional flood disaster qualitatively; analysis the impact factors of flood-system from disaster-system theory, that is the environment, hazard and the bearing body, constructs the evaluation index systems of risk level and loss level of regional flood disaster. Secondly, reviews the assessment methods and models of flood disaster briefly, because of the impact factors of the level of regional flood disaster are fuzzy and complex, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is chosen to evaluate and rank the risk level and loss level of regional flood disaster; as the prominent impact factors might not be reflected in traditional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, the model is modified to make better assessment and classification of regional flood disaster. Lastly, Jiangsu Province is chosen as the evaluation area, the modified-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model is used to evaluate flood risk level of13cities in Jiangsu Province and flood loss level of Jiangsu Province from2004to2010, the results got from the traditional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model are improved and corrected by comparison.In this paper, regional flood disaster risk level assessment and loss level assessment models are built based on the principles and methods of fuzzy mathematics, aiming to evaluate comprehensively by modifying the traditional fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, which are scientific and applicable through empirical research. |
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