Research On Regional Limit Of Flood-Bearing Capability Theory And Its Application

Under the background of contemporary climate change, flood and waterlogging disaster is an inevitable joint project facing human to which China has been subjected since ancient times. The frequency and disaster grade of flood are to the most extent great in Jianghan plain, which greatly restricts the development of social economy and harms the property of towns and lives of the people in valleys in Hubei province. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the research of regional flood disaster in the affected areas and hold the risk degree of flood disaster losses at the macro level. Working out systemic and convenient evaluation method of flood disaster is extremely important for the protection of the region’s social and economic property and life safety. These studies can provide decision help to warning system, prevention, reduction and management of flood and waterlogging.The hypothesis of this paper presumes that only natural factors especially natural disasters disturb the stability of regional human-land system while cultural factors are always stable. Jianghan plain located in Yangtze river and severely affected by flood disaster and the interaction between human and land. With the aid of the principle of regional flood-bearing limit and flood disaster assessment method in terms of this principle, this paper took Jianghan plain as an example and carried on an empirical study based on ENVI4.7 and ARCGIS10.2. First, this paper extracted some main indicates from disaster-causing factors, disaster-bearing factors and disaster-controlling factors and quantized these indicates (converting water) via population, socioeconomic statistical data, remote sensing data as well as Water conservancy and hydrologic data distributing spatially. And then this paper calculated the limit of flood-bearing in the study region. Hereon, this article simply evaluated disaster-causing and disaster situation of "20107" flood, which is a further reasonable and operable sign of regional flood-bearing limit theory. The achievements of the paper were as following: ① the paper conducted regional parameterization of regional flood-bearing limit model grounded on the previous groundwork, data limitations and realities of the study region; ② this paper calculated the safe water limit was 4.50×1010m3, the biggest loss water limit was 5.61×1011m3 and the flood-bearing limit was 6.06×1011m3 based on explicit reckoning model of flood-bearing limit and quantitative process of indicates; ③ the paper simply evaluated flood disaster-causing situation and disaster on "2010·7" flood in Jianghan plain under the framework of regional limit of flood-bearing principle. The results made clear that the waterlogging area was about 150.3km2 distributing in Xiaotao city, Honghu city and Jianli country. The average flood elevation was 27m. The submersed area (about 100km2) of middle-season rice accounted for 0.6% of their cultivated area. And the submerged rates of population and asset were respectively 0.2% and 0.36%.This study checked the correctness, feasibility and practicability of regional flood-bearing limit theory. The results showed that regional flood-bearing limit theory could provide a new theory and method to the prediction and disaster assessment of flood disaster. The paper put forward some prevention and reduction measures of flood in engineering and system reform for the study area based on results and current situation. Meanwhile, this study provided relevant reference and information for flood risk assessment, planning management and disaster relief and prevention in Jianghan plain.