Landscape Dynamics And Prediction Of Huangshuihe River Basin

Land use change has been the Key issues of academic research,with the continuous development of the research tools,from the point of view of the landscape ecology to study the effect of its ecological environment receive more and more attention,what’s more,landscape dynamic changes has gradually become a hot research topic.Because of its unique economic and geographic position,Huangshuihe River Basin as the study area has been researched by many scholars,so it is important to study its landscape pattern dynamic change,as important as simulation and prediction,for planning rational distribution and safeguarding the ecological environment.Based on the theory of landscape ecology and the remote sensing image data in the year of1992,2000and2008, with3S analytical processing technology as well as other natural, aerial photos and land use status maps, to extract the information of landscape pattern change,at the same time,with the method of system analysis, analyzing the position of landscape dynamic changes,combined with the natural, social and other datas of the study area,establishing a predictive model to forecast the possible landscape pattern state of Huangshuihe River Basin in future.The specific content and results are as follows:(1)Extracted the information of landscape pattern change of Huangshuihe River Basin. According to the specific Situation of the study area, classified the type of land use,with RS, GIS and GPS technology, as well as topographic map of the study area, using TM images as the data source,to classify the data in the supervised classification by computer, combined with the high-resolution aerial imagery and land use status map data,as well as manually modify treatment, made three landscape classification maps of the study area eventually.(2)Analyzed the landscape pattern dynamic changes of the Huangshuihe River Basin. With GIS technology, analyzed transfer changes between different years of each type of landscape pattern,at the same time, with the calculation software of landscape pattern index-FRAGSTATS3.3,researched the evolution of the landscape pattern on both the level of plaque types and the level of landscape, the results showed that cultivated land, garden land and construction land dominated the position and changed a lot.(3)Established the shift suitability Image of Landscape type.In order to consider various factors that affect the evolution of landscape pattern more comprehensively,analyzed the Influencing factors of landscape types from four aspects of the topography, meteorological factors, reachability factors as well as social,economic and human factors, on this basis, made the suitability image set of each type of landscape pattern.(4)Selected the optimum scale for forecasting, predicted the landscape pattern in the year of2016of the study area.Forecasted the evolution of landscape pattern on ten spatial scales, based on the Kappa accuracy index,selected4×4m as the optimal forecast scale, predicted the landscape pattern in the year of2016of the study area by CA-Markov simulation model,as a result,the landscape pattern will continue to follow the main trend that cultivated land reducing and garden land and construction land increasing.