| As the result of the rapid development in decades, Internet services which can show fundamental value of Internet are keeping emerging. The Internet has exposed many of the problems in the new era, in the future the new the emergence of the Internet is an inevitable trend. This paper is relying on the973Program "Service-oriented future Internet architecture and mechanism" to summary the Internet technology and application trends based on the future behavior of Internet users and applications. Based on this, the main results of this paper are as follows:(1) By analyzing the trend of the development of Internet technology and applications, use the scenario planning techniques to refine the typical application scenarios of future Internet.This paper studies the Internet technology and application trends, as well as the theory of scenario planning and implementation methods, in-depth analysis of the future Internet applications ecosystem and stakeholders relations. On the basis of previous studies, refine the key future trends and the key uncertain point and then structure the typical scenario of future Internet applications.(2) Through the analysis of the association between the user behavior and application, based on social psychology theory, the evolution of Internet applications structure model of user behavior were proposed.By analyzing the relevance of the Internet user behavior and the applications, the evolutionary trend of user behavior was proposed. Based on the evolutionary trend, refine the internal needs of the user behavior and construct a structural model of demand for Internet applications. (3) User behavior&needs questionnaire data was using in multidimensional scaling analysis to classify the future of the Internet applications.Design user behavior&needs questionnaire based on the model of the structure of the Internet, and then use the multidimensional scaling analysis method to extract the two essential application classification dimensions. The future Internet scenario was discussed. |
