Forecasting And Conservation Evaluation Of Industrial Energy In Tianjin

Both the central government and local governments have taken energy saving as abinding target into the12th Five-Year Plan. Tianjin’s "12th Five-Year Plan on Energy-saving"points out that carrying out energy saving and accelerating the construction of resource-savingand environment-friendly society, are important and urgent mission. We should take thestructure consumption reducing as a fundamental, the technology consumption reducing as asupport, the management consumption reducing as a guarantee, thereby speeding up thetransformation and maintaining a sustained, rapid and healthy development of the industrialeconomy. In this thesis, starting from the situations of Tianjin’s industrial economicdevelopment and energy consumption from2001to2010, the main factors affecting energyconsumption are analyzed, and then the evaluation index system of the energy-savingoutcome is studied. The thesis is written with the main content as follows：1．The current existing studies are summarized and commented. Their limitations andshortcomings are proposed. The purpose and significance of this thesis study are cleared.2．By analyzing the condition of Tianjin’s Industrial energy consumption and economicdevelopment, we find that Tianjin’s Industrial Energy Saving still has problems. We also usethe way of econometrics to do some Cointegration tests and Granger Causality Tests ofIndustrial GDP and consumption of in Tianjin.3．The nine factors which have impacts on Tianjin’s Industrial energy consumption areanalyzed. By use of ISM model, this thesis takes nine factors into hierarchical divisions toform a logical and structural Hierarchy chart. The chart divides four levels in whole, includingsurface factors (levelⅠ), deep factors (level II and level III) and fundamental factors (levelⅣ).4．Based on the industrial terminal historical data of Tianjin, by way of grayforecasting and trend forecasting, the industrial energy demand of industrial terminal inTianjin is predicted, providing a realistic basis for the policy export.5．The evaluation system on the industrial energy saving of Tianjin is construed. UsingEntropy Evaluation Method to evaluate the amount of energy saving during Tianjin’s "11thFive-Year Plan" period By performing scenario analysis, the industrial energy consumptionduring the “12th Five-Year Plan” period is predicted.6．Combined with the characteristics of the development of Tianjin, the strategy isproposed from the perspectives of the industrial policy, the fiscal policy, the science andtechnology policy, and other aspects.