Research On The Supervising And Early Warning System Of Service Industry In China

Economic supervising and early warning carries on total, comprehensive, overall,systematic analysis and judgment to the whole service industry development. It supervisesand quantifies a series of indexes，which can reflect service economic activity process andactuality，put forward the alarm to the future possible economic transition and great changebased on supervised result which is the barometer and alarm of service economy by utilizing aseries of economic indicator. It uses theory analysis method, experience analysis method,statistical analysis method to supervise and appraise service business cycle.This paper combines prosperity index method, early warning signal lamp system, andexplains the classification, choice, pretreatment method on the basis of theory united practice.Cross correlation, regression analysis are used to classify three kinds of index. I make use offactor analysis to calculate the weight of every form index in detail. It also recommends themethod of workouting the Composite Index(CI)，which reflect the change degree of index.The early warning index system is established and index critical value is divided. A group ofsignal lamps are used to reflect the status at every time，At last, we utilize mathematicsmethod to format the comprehensive index.This paper takes China as an example to research the economic prosperity supervisingand early warning system. Based on the reality of China，the author prospect that governmentshould take out positive measures in several aspects, for example, the labor input and capitalinvestment in service, the quality of workers and wage system in service industry, disposableincome of residents, the growth of service consumption, and so on.