A Research About Financial Early-warning Index System Of Our Country

Economy globalization and finance liberalization promote the world economics with the rapid and deeply development which makes the susceptibility, interactive and destructiveness of financial crisis become more and more evident. The financial crisis in 2008 which creates negative influence to the world economics has not eliminated completely。Along with our country involving in financial globalization, we share the tremendous benefit of it. At the same time, we are confronted with more financial risk that comes from inside and international, which increases the probability of occurring finance crisis in our country. To selecting Early-warning Index System is also important in this project component. Therefore, the establishment, analysis and monitoring of early-warning Index System which suites China's actual situation appears extremely urgent, will lend a hand to strengthen risk-resisting ability of our financial industry, resist the impact of the international financial crisis, and promote the steady, quick and healthy development of economy and finance in our country.This article takes the Business cycle turbulent theory and the Financial unstable hypothesis theory as a breakthrough point. I have elaborated the domestic and foreign scholar's domain research results in financial risk early warning indicator system and carried on the evaluation to the domestic scholar's research and analyzed our country finance risk origin under the open economy condition firstly. According to financial risk early warning indicator system's selection principle, has established the financial risk early warning indicator system which this article selects.Through the Factor analysis and KLR signal rule to examined the early-warning indicator system's feasibility and the rationality, the result is that this article selects the early warning indicator system has better reflection our country finance risk's produced reason and change tendency. Conforms to the real economy finance development background, which has the practical significance. Finally, according to the conclusion which obtains this article, in view of the financial risk which our country faces at present and establishment perfect finance risk early-warning indicator system's pressing, proposed the countermeasure suggestion is transforming idea, raises the financial risk guard consciousness, and so on.