Research On Risk Of Energy Saving Project For The Coal-fired Power Plant Under EPC Model

The coal-fired power plant is large energy consumption, and consumes large amounts of coal. The coal-fired power plant has serious tasks in energy conservation and emission reduction. Under the background in the increasingly prominent contradiction between coal and power, the profit ability of thermal power enterprise is not strong.China Electricity Council put forward the Energy Performance Contract (for short, EPC), as a new mechanism and model of energy conservation and emission reduction.So far our country owns Energy Management Company on1734based on the model of the EPC. However, the EMCo is very few, using the model of EPC on the energy saving projects. The main reason is the high risk, the complex of measuring energy and difficult finance. How to effectively identify and measure the risk factors in the process of implementation is produced in the problems in the practice, but also of the theory research is a challenge. So, from the part of EMCo, the theme of this paper researches risk for energy saving project for coal-fired power plant based on the model of EPC. The main research contents are as follows:(1) Summarizes the dynamics research at home and abroad of the EPC model and EPC project risk. From the EPC mode and the feature of energy saving project for the coal-fired power plant, we explain the related knowledge o f EPC model in detail.(2) In the process of constructing risk identification system of energy saving project, considering the complexity and particularity of the project, we use the model of combining engineer project breakdown structure with risk breakdown structure to identify risk factors. Through this kind of method, we can analyze the risk factors on the influence of the whole project..(3) According to characteristics of risk factors for energy saving project based on the EPC model, we establish risk assessment model of combining fuzzy CIM model with Monte Carlo simulation method.(4) According to the before theory, we simulate the energy saving project for Y power plant and try to find the major risk factors that influence the project,and come up with some control measures.Through the above analysis, the paper constructs a risk identification method based on WBS-RBS, the risk assessment model of the fuzzy CIM model and Monte Carlo stimulation. It can assess systematically recognition and measurement risk factors. The paper provides a theoretical basis for project decision makes, promote the development of EPC mode in the power plant.