Research On Coordination Model For A Two-stage Supply Chain With Uncertain Yield

With the development of lean thinking, the core enterprise of the supply chaincontinues to cut suppliers, which on one hand, has improved the efficiency of thesupply chain, and reduced the whole costs, as well as enhanced the quickresponsibility to demand changes, while on the other hand, make supply chain moreand more vulnerable. Especially, when the supplier’s production capacity, mechanicalfailure and other uncertainties occur, supply chain will fail to manufacture because ofthe supply inadequate or delay. Meanwhile, in the globalization process of the supplychain, enterprises are facing a more and more complex global economic and politicalenvironment, where uncertainties like economic sanctions, terrorism, war and naturaldisasters are more and more common, which lead to supply disruptions risks of supplychain. Therefore, there is a need to coordinate and manage the supply chain in thecase of supply uncertainty, in order to enhance the anti-risk capability andcompetitiveness, which has become the hot issue of the current studies.Nowadays, the researches on supply uncertainty management concentrate in theinventory management, multi-source supply and contract coordination. Most of thesecoordination studies are considering the uncertainty of the supply as a random factorto influence decision-makings in supply chain, and focused on how to make thedecentralized supply chain achieve the same performance on order quantity,production and price etc. as centralized model of the supply chain by using differentcontracts. Unlike the previous studies, we considered the suppliers’ supply reliabilityas a decision variable, and coordinated the supply chain from the angle of improvingthe supply reliability of the supply chain.There are the main contents:(1) The supply chain contains an assemble-to-order manufacturer and acomponent supplier, which makes production plan according to the orders. The supplyis unreliable, which means the actual volume of output is a random proportion of theplanned production volume. In this context, we studied how to make the best orderdecisions of the manufacture and the best production plan of the supplier in order tomaximize their profits.(2) Compared the best decisions in uncertain and certain supply conditions, andstudied supply disruptions as a special case of the supply uncertainty. And then weexplored the impact of supply disruptions probability on the decision-making andprofits of the manufacturers and suppliers.(3) From the point of improving overall supply reliability of the supply chain,we set a coordination model with uncertain supply reliability to study the best order decision and coordination decision, aiming for achieving profits growth and Paretoimprovement of the supply chain. In the end, set a numerical example to verify thecoordination strategy.