Research On Financial Distress Prediction Of Listed Companies

With the establishment of the stock exchange and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in 1991,many companies seized the opportunity to go public,the number of listed companies has sprung up,and the continuous advancement of economy and technology has brought more opportunities for enterprises and challenges.Due to the imperfection of the regulatory system,many companies have emerged various problems in the process of development,which are the root causes of financial difficulties.However,once a company is in financial distress,investors and creditors will suffer economic losses,which will also discourage investors.In serious cases,even the normal business activities of the company will be affected or even bankrupt.More and more enterprises and scholars are beginning to realize that if enterprises want to develop better and longer in a white-hot market economy,they must know how to find problems,avoid risks,and reduce the probability of financial distress,business failure,and even bankruptcy restructuring.The first part of this article is an introduction.Firstly,it introduces the research background and significance of this paper.Then it introduces the different understandings of foreign and domestic financial distress prediction indicators and financial distress prediction models.Finally,it introduces the research methods and contents and the innovations of this paper.The second part is to sort out the relevant theoretical knowledge of financial distress.Firstly,it analyzes the concept of financial distress,then expounds the relevant theory of financial distress prediction model,then introduces the principle and process of financial distress prediction model prediction,and finally introduces The financial forecasting model required for this paper—(5-(80)model and -(80)model.The third part introduces the sample cases of this paper.Firstly,it analyzes the current situation of China's shipping industry,and then analyzes the financial status of China COSCO Holdings Co.,Ltd.by analyzing the balance sheet,solvency and profitability in light of the current situation of the shipping industry.Explain that China Ocean's conclusions on assets,solvency and operational capacity are relatively poor.The fourth part uses the model introduced in this article to calculate the financial data of the case company,and compares the analysis results of the case company's financial status with the third part.In order to verify the robustness of the model,This paper deliberately randomly selected 20 listed companies that were specially treated as *ST in 2018 and 20 normal operating enterprises to enter the model for testing.In the end,it is concluded that both models are available for use in the three years before the forecasting of the company's special treatment.The -(80)model is more accurate when calculating the data of the enterprise for more than three years before it is specially processed.The fifth part is to put forward policy suggestions and improvement measures for the status quo of China COSCO.