The Research Of Private Small And Medium Enterprises Financial Crisis Warning

Since2011, after the financial crisis, the development of private small andmedium enterprises (SMEs) of China is more difficult, many companies haveembarked on a bankruptcy.There are many reasons to cause private small and mediumenterprises in this situation, and funding strand breaks is the most important reason.With the small scale, many persons, short survival time and other characteristics, theprivate SMEs are more prone to financial crisis than other companies.The privateSMEs, which are in larger quantities, develop rapidly, and absorb a lot of labor,andhave an important position in the development of China’s market economy. Thestability of private small and medium enterprises is an ensure to the healthydevelopment of China’s economic.So establishing an early warning model is verynecessary to analyze and evaluate the financial condition of private SMEs.Firstiy, this article defines the concept of private small and medium enterprisesand the financial crisis,and summarizes the characteristics of private SMEs fromsystem characteristics,,industry distribution,the survival time, the pace ofdevelopment and the quality of enterprises four aspects.Then it elaborate andcomment the relevant literature and theory of the private SMEs’ financial crisis earlywarning. Secondly, conduct empirical analysis, including the identification of samplesand the study period, identify early warning indicator system, as well as early warningmodel. When designing the index system, follow the premise of the constructingprinciples, give full consideration to the characteristics of private small and mediumenterprises, and on the based the questionnaire,make the ownership structure,corporate governance, management indicators and so on into the index system ofearly warning,and get the index system of private small and medium enterprisesfinancial crisis warning in order to establish the model for early warninganalysis.Finally, select the44listed private small and medium-sized enterprises, usethe original data and the index system which isestablished to build the logisticregression model to analyze financial crisis situations of the private SMEs.The main conclusions drawn in this article are as follows:(1) on the basis of the analysis of characteristics of private small and medium, the index systemisestablished，the results show that the warning effect of the indicator system isbatter, and it can better distinguish private small and medium-sized betweenenterprises with financial crisis and corporate with financial normal；(2) deal withindex system by using factor analysis,and build a logistic regression model to predictthe financial position of private SMEs, and the forecast result is better.