Construction And Test Of The Logistic Regression Model In Early-Warning On Financial Crisis

With the gradual advancement of global economic integration and the fast development of our country market economy, especially after our country joins the WTO, marketing competition is gradually vigorous, financial management faces the larger risk and complexity. Enterprises fall into crisis because of financial risk, even bankrupt in recent years. How to warn early the crisis, eliminate the crisis in the embryonic stage, keep enterprise to develop continuously and healthy, this not only is the key point which the listed company pays attention to, also become urgent need for various benefit correlations. Therefore, to establish an effective suitable early-warning model on financial crisis has the very important realistic meanings for the listed company and its benefit correlations. The purpose of this paper is to find early-warning indicators that can remarkably distinct the financial crisis company and the non-financial crisis company through analyzing financial indicators of the listed company and establish early-warning model on financial crisis that is suitable for the listed company of our country, provide the making-policy basis and the advice for related respects.On the basis of forefathers' research results, this article regards the listed manufacturing company that is treated specially (ST) because of "unusual financial condition" in A-share market as the research object, selects the training samples which are composed of 50 financial crisis companies and 235 normal companies. In virtue of SPSS, firstly, this article studies the data characteristics of finance indicators of sample companies and selects the non-parametric method to test significant differences of 29 financial indicators between the financial crisis company and the non-financial crisis company, then utilizes the single variable logistic regression analysis to select the financial indicators which...