The Impact And Sensitivity Analysis Of Expressway Toll-by-Weight Rate

The implementation of toll-by-weight achieved a certain degree of effect in the nationwide,but along with continuously improving of our country economy development level andconstantly changing of transportation supply and demand relations, the original charge mode andrate standard already cannot adapt to the current development requirements. In the past, theresearch only focus on the method and theory of the decision of the rate, however, ignoreadjusting rate according to the relevant factors and analyzing its effect after formulated, based onthis. The article is starting from rate formulation and adjustment mechanism, with economics,statistics and sensitivity analysis theory to study the effect and related factors of toll-by-weightsystematically, and in-depth research the sensitivity of the influence of rate adjustment for eachfactor in highway traffic.First of all,analysis the difference problems of the existing toll-by-weight mode in China,mainly includes three kinds of modes: completely hierarchical mode, completely unsorted modeand incompletely mode, analysis existing problems of each mode, including the influence oftoll-by-weight to the distribution for regional transportation and highway transport efficiencyand cost.Secondly, analyzing the influence factors which are close to the rate of toll-by-weight,including some internal factors such as traffic, vehicle operating cost, highway transportationefficiency and other factors, like highway operation cost, benefit of reduce the number of trafficaccidents, level of economic development, government policy and so on.Again, fixed-effect model analysis by using STATA, the statistical software, for traffic data.Through the descriptive statistics results, institute data characteristic of selected variables andsamples；then explore the relationship between these variables through the correlation analysis.The regression and test results show that the relationship between the influence factors and thedependent variable——rate. Finally verify the hypothesis1: there is a significant negativecorrelation between vehicle operating cost and the rate of toll-by-weight, hypothesis2: there is asignificant negative correlation between traffic volume on expressway and the rate, there is asignificant positive correlation between the traffic flow common road and the rate, besides, it isfound that there is no obvious correlation between vehicle operating cost and the rate for ordinary highway in hypothesis1, and also found the regression results do not support thehypothesis3——benefit of road transport do not change obviously as the rate change.Finally, through the utility function to put forward the selection separation model, thenestablished a equilibrium assignment model according to the different types of truck, and finallypropose the sensitivity analysis model based on sensitivity theory according to the equilibriumassignment model, and prove it through the example of Beijing-shanghai expressway in Hebeiprovince and G104, analysis the specific influence of rate changes for area traffic flow, vehicleoperating cost and transportation efficiency, and finally puts forward the managementcountermeasures and plans and measures.