The History Of Our Country Agriculture Surplus Labor Transfer Phase, Patterns, And Forecasts

At present, China has entered a period of rapid development of the middle stageof industrialization and urbanization, China still is a typical dual economic structure,China’s agricultural surplus labor transfer has yielded good results, but with foreign,and China to build to the requirements of the well-off society, there is a gap. Thestatus quo of China’s agricultural surplus labor transfer, review the historicaltrajectory of China’s agricultural surplus labor, and explore how out of China’scharacteristics to a reasonable and orderly transfer of surplus agricultural labortransfer road, the forecast transfer of surplus agricultural labor, these are the need tostudy the major subject. Transfer of agricultural labor from the practical experience ofthe countries around the world, there is no fixed pattern, the surplus agricultural labortransfer to take what model specific decision by the social environment and economicdevelopment. Firstly it explains the theories and methods of Marxism anddevelopment economics, and domestic agricultural surplus labor transfer theory andresults. Followed by the number of surplus labor from China’s agricultural and binaryindicators measure the division of China’s agricultural surplus labor transfer historicalstage is discussed in detail China’s agricultural surplus labor transfer historicaltrajectory and analysis of the "Lewis turning point" in our country did not come. Thensummed up the general pattern of China’s agricultural is surplus labor transfer. China’sagricultural surplus labor transfer mode before the reform and opening up the systemmode; since the reform and opening up local transfer and off-site transfer are becomethe main mode. Finally, the regression time series combination model to estimate theyears of1949-1978, China’s policy of delaying the transfer of surplus agriculturallabor force in agriculture is2509.8million, and predicted the "12th Five-Year" periodChina’s agricultural surplus labor transfer size.