Study On The Market Capacity Forecasting And Decision-Making Of Ship Finance Of Shipping Company In Our Country

Shipbuilding industry becomes increasingly significant in domestic economy. How torealize the transformation and upgrade of this industry is a very urgent mission; and theexploration of offshore oil and gas resources become increasingly important, too; the“Twelfth Five-year Development Plan” has cataloged the offshore industry into high-endequipment building industry; In addition, the status of shipping industry in our countrydevelopment strategy is obvious，because the mission to develop Shanghai into internationalshipping and finance center is a onerous task. The above questions are relative to the samequestion, that is shipping finance, and the most important one is the financing of shipbuilding.However, because of global financial crisis, sovereign debt crisis and the slow recovery ofworld economy, Bank Consortium takes a cautious attitude towards ship finance. While, theneed for ship finance in China is especially pressing, and we are facing with the problemssuch as unscientific ship finance decision-making, unsound service system of financialinstitutions, and underdeveloped government policy support system.In order to make the ship finance decision-making system more scientific and thefinance service more perfect, many scholars conducted a serious of academic research in thefield of the innovation of financing pattern, risk avoiding, decision-making methods, andgovernment policy supporting. On the basis of the above research, the paper will study on thefollowing aspects:After analyzing and summarizing the contemporary development of foreign shipfinance, this paper came up with the current problems of China’s ship finance and made up amanagement system of shipping finance for Chinese shipping enterprises, which includesmarket demand forecasting, finance mode and cost management, finance risk identificationand policy supporting.Based on the method of gray system, gray neural network method and exponentialsmoothing, this paper constructed the market demand forecasting model of the new shipcontract and price trends prediction model. This paper does the empirical analysis in the fieldof containerships. On the analysis of ship financing methods and identification of financingrisks, with the use of multi-level multi-objective fuzzy optimization method, this paper constructed the financing decision-making model. The model is comprehensive, andmeasured the weight of each indicator and the degree of its significance. The purpose is tomake the ship financing decisions-making more scientific. At the same time, combined withthe case of the model constructed, this paper does the empirical analysis.With the consideration of other major countries’shipping policy and the current situationof China, this paper puts forward the advices to improve the international competence ofChina’s ship finance, and make sure the realization of shipping companies’ financing fromthe perspective of government, the financial institutions and the enterprises.In summary, both shipping and shipbuilding industry play important roles in Chineseeconomy and national development strategy. Facing with the uncertainty of world economyin the future, to study on the forecasting and decision-making of ship finance is practical andmeaningful for both marine industry.