The Research Of Economic Effect About China’s Agricultural Products Export

China is a large and important country of agricultural products producing and consumers. Agriculture is the foundation of our national economy. In recent years, as China’s population growth and the improvement of living standards, the demand for agricultural products has increased fast and the structure of demand has also changed. besides, the request of quality and variety of agricultural is becoming higher. if our agricultural products production and sales can not meet these requirements, the whole national economy will be affected.Since the reform and opening up of China, especially after China’s accession to the WTO, China’s agricultural exports increased quickly and made an important contributions to earn foreign exchange through export. Today, China foreign exchange reserves have more than2trillion U.S. dollars, we no longer need to deliberately pursue agricultural trade surplus and no longer need to deliberately pursue the quantity growth of agricultural exports. In recent years, agricultural production costs rise and profits fall, it make consumer welfare damaged for maintenance of the profit through agricultural products export subsidies and export tax rebate. It is questioned that weather exports of agricultural products is economical. This article is to study the economic effects of agricultural products exports, from the aspect that weather the agricultural products export is economical. The agricultural products export price is below the price of home country that make our national people’s welfare damaged. through the empirical analysis and the model analysis, the conclusion is that agricultural products export is not economical. Conclusion. that is a important reference for whether China should continue to implement policies to promote exports of agricultural products. At the same time, it’s an important guide and reference to the sale concept and sale model for the agricultural products sale enterprise.The best choice of the quantity of the exports of agricultural products should first meet the demand of our national demand for agricultural products quantity and quality and maximize national welfare.after that if there has oversupply it may be export. Only by this way, China’s agricultural exports is the economical, otherwise it’s not the economical. Our domestic demand of agricultural products market is a market with great development potential, expanding domestic demand and encouragement the expansion of regional trade is helpful for agricultural sales, which can improvement national welfare and has vital significance of developing our economy.Firstly, this paper analyzed the status of agricultural exports of China. This paper outlined the condition and the development trend of world agricultural products trade and China’s agricultural products exports status in world agricultural products exports trade. The analysis of the status of Chinese agricultural exports include product structure of Chinese agricultural products export, market conditions of Chinese agricultural products export, operating structure of Chinese agricultural products export and the mode of trade of Chinese agricultural products export. China’s agricultural commodity structure of exports analyzed the size of our agricultural export trade and China’s agricultural products exports trade balance and the development trend, particularly, It analyzes the scale and trends of China’s major agricultural products of exports. The region condition of China’s agricultural products exports analyzed the region condition of our export of agricultural products. It analyzed the total value and the growth rate of the exports of agricultural products from2005to2009for some of the major provinces and cities whose export value is on the top of the total export value.period. The condition of Chinese agricultural exports by country has been introduced briefly of the condition of the agricultural products exports of the China’s major exporter country. After analyzing the basic situation of China’s agricultural exports, It has a brief analysis of the comparative disadvantage of agricultural products exports of China.Empirical research component is the core of this article. This chapter studied the relationship between China’s agricultural products exports and economic growth. It has a strong practical significance for comprehensive understanding of foreign trade and domestic trade of agricultural products. This chapter uses1993-2009annual data and make use of the econometric analysis research methods to study. The conclusion is that there is a long-term stability co -integration relationship between exports or domestic sales of agricultural products and GDP growth. In this co-integration relationship, the contribution elasticity of agricultural exports to economic growth is0.412, that is to say for every1%increase in agricultural exports, the economic growth is0.412%, while the contribution of domestic sales growth in agricultural products to economic growth is1.29, that is, for every1%increase of domestic sale of agricultural products, economic growth is1.29%.Clearly, agricultural domestic sale play a stronger role in promoting the development of economy than the export of agricultural products. So the domestic sale of agricultural products has greater contribution to economic growth better than the exports of agricultural products. The chapter also established the error correction model. We know from comparing the relationship between the two correction model, in the short term, the contribution to economic growth of domestic sale of agricultural products is still stronger than export. Compared with the long-term relationship, the coefficient of short-term agricultural exports and domestic sales contribution to the economy is smaller than long-term. The deviation will be corrected in the next period. To known the relationship between agricultural products exports and economic growth, the relationship between domestic sales of agricultural products and economic growth, we made their causality test respectively. The test results of the relationship of export total value of the agricultural products and the GDP growth is that agricultural products exports promote the economic growth. But it can not be proven the causal relationship that economic growth promote agricultural products by statistic. Agricultural exports and economic growth is the single causal relationship. But, the domestic sale of agricultural products and economic growth has two-way causal link. The growth of domestic sale of agricultural products promote the economic growth, meanwhile, the economic growth also contributed to the growth of domestic sale of the agricultural products. On conclusion, the result of the empirical test is:the economic effects of exports of agricultural products is less than the economic effects of domestic sale of agricultural products.This article also used the analysis of welfare economics. from the perspective of social welfare analysis to prove that agricultural products exports is non-economic. Whether a policy is a good policy base on whether the policy improved efficiency and enhance well-being. If for the reason of expand export, increase foreign exchange and stimulate the domestic economy to implement export subsidies and export tax rebate policy is not base on the efficiency and welfare. In this paper, we take a example of agricultural products price distortions made by the police of encourage agricultural products exports subsidies and export tax rebate. It analysis of the economic effect of the small country agricultural products export subsidies (export tax refund) and the large country’s export subsidies (export tax refund).It concluded that agricultural products export subsidies and export tax rebate distorted the prices of agricultural products and reduced consumer surplus, so the total social effect is negative. Therefore, the police of promotion of agricultural exports such as distorted agricultural price policy is non-economic from the perspective of social welfare. We encourage agricultural products exports is at the cost of our financial and material resources to obtain export growth. So the more of the encouraging measures the more of sacrifice their own price for the national welfare and what we are being sacrificed just to be enjoyed by nationals of the importing country. They buy our agricultural products at the lower price than our country’s domestic price of agricultural products in China, which we pay the price difference. In the past, China’s economic development lagged behind and we need to expand export to develop our economies. But today, our country already has very high foreign exchange reserves, so we do not need to sacrifice the welfare to get more foreign exchange reserves and we have ability to make Chinese nationals enjoying their own national welfare which we deserved.This article also uses a case to explore the road of China’s matsutake transforming from exports to domestic market. Only to rely on exports of agricultural products export enterprises will face great risks, so they need to develop the domestic market to reduce risk. Because once the foreign refused to import and set various export barriers, they will face the risk of backlog of inventory, prices sharply decrease and agricultural products export enterprises will be at a loss or failure if that kind of agricultural products do not have domestic market. Thus, domestic sales of agricultural products market development is fundamental for agricultural products sale. To actively explore the domestic market of agricultural products will help reducing the risk of the export of agricultural products and make the price of agricultural products stable. The case analyzed the rejection problems that the Chinese matsutake exports face to. It put forward a reasonable suggestion to show how to develop the domestic sales market of the matsutake. Our country has a large potential market, so a stable domestic market demand is the fundamental guarantee for matsutake sales. Only Actively explore the domestic sales market of matsutake, can we fundamentally solve the huge price fluctuations of matsutake and no longer subject to fluctuations in external demand and policy impact. Only that can we no longer be controlled by others.This article concludes with conclusions and policy recommendations. From this study shows that the contribution to economic growth domestic sales of agricultural products is bigger than that of exports. The relationship between domestic sales and export of agricultural products is mutual promotion. That is to say, domestic sale of agricultural products promote economic growth and economic growth also promote domestic sale of agricultural products. It make a good Explain that the economic effects of domestic sale of agricultural products is greater than the exports. In addition, because of the impact of the domestic policies to encourage agricultural exports, agricultural products export prices below the domestic selling price, so that the welfare of our national decline. The benefits are enjoyed by nationals of the importing country. Chinese social welfare because a net loss. Overall, Chinese agriculture products exports is not economy. For agricultural products exports is non-economic, this paper made recommendations for government policies, including gradually cancelling agricultural export subsidies, export tax rebates and other price distorting policy for promotion agricultural products export and the policy proposals for government promote the domestic sale development of agricultural products and agricultural products export enterprises switch to domestic sale. We should encourage inter-regional trade of agricultural products and expand domestic demand. Besides, we put forward six proposals to sales of agricultural products business for reform and development, including the suggest to the export enterprises transform to domestic sale enterprises. It has great significance meaning to promote the development of agricultural products marketing enterprises.