Subjective Rating Of The Raised Funds Based On Online-public Opinion And Text Analysis

Fund industry and rating industry are closely linked. The fund rating is significant for the development of the fund sector in both the developed countries with mature financial markets and the developing counties like China where the market is just in the building. The main reasons responsible for it are:on one hand, the prosperity of the fund industry need the professional information provided by the fund rating sector; on the other hand, the development of the fund rating makes the rating results more prudential and reliable. Furthermore, the investors’higher requirement for the accuracy is an important driving force in promoting the flourish of fund rating.China’s fund industry now has a30-year history. After the year2005, with the rapid development of Chinese capital market, there are66fund management companies in total, which issue and manage914-raised funds, the share of total fund assets is2646465million, and the fund net asset value of the total size is up to2.187979trillion Yuan by the end of2011. However, it is still very finite comparing with the mature market in foreign countries.Meanwhile, with growing of the sector, the complicated conditions of investment funds are becoming more and more apparent. Investors are incapable of getting enough disclosing information to judge the quality of the fund. With the popularity of China’s capital market and investment philosophy, the number of fund investors grows dramatically. Most retail investors tend to choose the fund based on the Fund’s evaluation rating ranks which are given by various intermediaries such as the Fund, the Fund’s historical yield to choose the right investments. These are all objective rating methods. However, current objective evaluation cannot provide a good protection of investors, and a considerable number of investors are still at a loss and facing up the individual risk. Therefore, starting from the goal of investor protection and fund investment risk prevention, we urgently need to come up with an objective rating corresponding to the subjective rating method to guide investors. And is based on a better rating methods can better provide a reference for a rational investment for investors and better incentives to fund managers to improve performance, constraints, and fund manager misconduct, better promote the stable and orderly development of fund market to better enhance the operational efficiency of the capital markets of these four reasons. In this article, I try to use modern methods of textual analysis, starting from the text data and subjective evaluation data is the most active forum data, the use of subjective evaluation of subjective performance evaluation of the Fund, resulting in a subjective rating methods.In this paper, the main method is theoretical research, and supported by empirical analysis to investigate the relationship of mutual influence between the actual income and subjective evaluation of the raised funds in the Internet perspective, the subjective evaluation system of the raised funds from the theoretical and empirical research. This article will follow the literature review, theoretical analysis to the assumptions, empirical test the technical route to the conclusions and policy recommendations to build the framework of the study. By presenting the subjective rating a true reflection of the actual situation of the Fund’s performance, the subjective rating of the raised funds on the sensitivity of threat of return than an objective rating, three assumptions are mutually independent relationship between subjective ratings and objective ratings of the raised funds, and confirmed by empirical three assumption of authenticityThis article is divided into six parts, as follows:The first part is the introduction, as a starting point for this study introduces the topics of the background, purpose and significance of research, ideas and methods, the innovation of this paper.The second part is the related literature review and analysis. Introduces domestic and foreign status and results of performance evaluation of the raised funds, research and application of domestic and international fund rating, the last of the existing literature are summarized and leads to this study.The third part is a theoretical analysis of the subjective performance evaluation based on text mining. This section focuses on behavioral finance theory on subjective performance evaluation, information is not sufficient conditions for investors to take the sheep behavior, and asked the three assumptions of the theory and raised funds of the subjective assessment of subjective performance evaluation.The fourth part is the introduction of a subjective evaluation model used in text mining technology. Describes the theoretical foundation of data mining and text mining, text mining methods and steps, and then build a subjective evaluation model according to the theories and methods of text miningThe fifth part is a subjective evaluation model run. This paper selects the data in the daily fund net interception of the raised funds in2011,30sub-forum post text data as a basis for sample selection of control variables; build their own theoretical model to analyze the test.The sixth part of the multi-angle analysis of the data extracted in the previous section, From a statistical point of view, through the introduction of the assessment error rate volatility and the accuracy of objective and subjective ratings were analyzed, and then use a statistical model to verify the subjective rating, the objective the correlation between the rating and the actual rate of returnThe seventh part is the conclusion of this study. Realistic analysis based on theoretical analysis and empirical analysis concluded which put forward policy recommendations on the establishment of a subjective evaluation system of raised funds in China, and summarizes the limitations and shortcomings of this study, the direction for further research.The innovation of this paper is embodied in the following three aspects:(1) Theoretical innovation. This paper first use the subjective evaluation to rate fund performance in theoretical circles, and establish a subjective evaluation model. In the theory of subjective evaluation on the basis of the actual proposed the subjective rating of the three assumptions.(2) Methods of innovation. Data mining and text mining methods and practical application in the financial sector, the subjective evaluation of the indicators included in the evaluation of the Fund to build a subjective evaluation method based on empirical analysis, put forward a complete set of subjective rating of the raised funds model.(3) The application of innovation. The most closely related to mature and objective rating models used in the field of subjective evaluation, information exchange forum data as the object of study, vast amounts of text data into the subjective evaluation of the characteristics, and finally used in the financial sector. And most of the fund rating the idea is inconsistent.Finally, due to limited time and personal capacity, this study also there are many gaps and areas for improvement, in particular in:First, the subjective rating system for building raised funds for the803posts in30funds as the sample is too small, if you want to build a true and reliable subjective rating system needs more forum posts for the data source must be to the Internet the research base. A vast amount of text data based on the subjective evaluation is true and reliable, and can make a subjective rating of the raised funds will be more practical significance.Secondly, we finally selected five universal subjective indicators of text mining methods. If we subdivided the five subjective indicators, and take in some secondary indicators in the model, that the Fund’s subjective rating results will change? Also need this later on this issue for a deeper research.Thirdly, the article only confirms the correlation of the subjective rating of the Fund’s actual rate of return, verify that the subjective evaluation as an essential part of the fund rating and investors rely on the subjective rating system to invest in this article does not involving research in this area needs further empirical examination.