Analysis On Resettlement Income Based On System Dynamics

As China’s speeding up of the constructions of hydropower engineering, more and more reservoir resettlements have been brought about. The present number of resettlements has reached tens of millions. Thus reservoir resettlement work is an important part of the hydropower engineering construction. The policies have changed from the relief compensation and "the tendency of attaching importance from engineering to reservoir resettlements" back to1980s to the development oriented immigration policy later, and presently to the third stage of investment oriented immigration policy. The constantly improving of polices follows the resettlement goals of "successful moving out, stability maintaining, development keeping going and enrichment realizing".The resuming of resettlements’production and life after their relocation for hydropower engineering land expropriation is not only the key element of the immigration plan objectives, but also the important factor of maintaining the social stability in the resettlement area. The resuming of resettlements’income is one of the important indicators among many evaluation figures of merit. Analyses of resettlements’income sources, income structure and risk factors that affect their income will provide basis for decision making of the post-immigration substantive supporting policies.In this paper, under the theoretical basis of the research and survey of reservoir resettlements’income home and abroad, combined with the work practices of the monitoring and evaluation of hydropower project resettlements, qualitative and quantitative analyses of resettlements’income have been made by ways of income structure and risk. First, a system dynamics model has been built for income structure and risk analyses, and through both qualitative and quantitative analyses under different scenarios, it can help to clearly understand resettlements’income source and structure, and also influence the substantive supporting policy making for the resettlements’income increase. Secondly, on the basis of the analysis of resettlements’ income structure, a risk analysis has been made on the resuming of resettlements’ income through fault tree risk analysis method, thus positive and appropriate responses could be taken to prevent the income decline after higher risk factors have been found. Meanwhile, the pilot resettlements in Danjiangkou Reservoir, Henan, the middle route of South-to-North Water Transfer Project, have been set as investigation background for model verification. Finally, according to the results of both the system dynamics model and the fault tree model, measures of rapidly resuming and increasing income of resettlements after resettlement have been put forward, from the standpoints of income structure and risk avoiding respectively.