Yunnan Province Industry Structure And Employment Structure Relationship Analysis And Prediction

The core factors of economic growth is the industrial structure．The adjustmentof the industrial structure will inevitably bring changes in the employment structure.The rationality of employment industrial structure is the protection of a reasonableeconomic structure, the largest output and the maximum effectivenessoutputs．Therefore, the employment structure can improve the realization of a directimpact on the healthy economic growth and modernization.This article is based on Yunnan industry structure and employment structurerelation as the research object. Altogether some six chapter of compositions, the firstchapter, including the research background and significance of domestic andinternational literature review, research contents and methods. The second chapter,Yunnan province industry structure and employment structure analysis of the currentsituation, including the definition of the basic concepts, the Yunnan Provinceindustrial structure and the employment structure development present situation, inwhich present situation mainly analyzes and carries on the industrializationadvancement localization and the employment structure change characteristic analysispresent situation from the industrial structure direct-viewing characteristic, and foundthe overall effectiveness of the low level of industrial structure,between the economyand the employment cannot realize the coordinative development, also intensified theYunnan Province industrial structure and the employment structure non-uniformdevelopment, Yunnan Province now as before is in the industrialization initial periodthe stage; The third chapter, Yunnan province the industrial structure andemployment structure relationship analysis, mainly carries on the industrial structureand the employment structure relationship analysis by the traditional method:employment elastic, structure deviation ratio, correlation coefficient analysis method,and further analyzes three big industrial interior various professions the industrialstructure and the employment structure relations situation; From employment in terms of elastic: the first industry job pulling effect is very small, the secondindustry on employment have exclusive role, the third industry absorb employmentthe main force, but absorbing some limitations; From the structure deviation ratio at:the first industry structure deviation degree a trend of increase, the second industrystructure for larger deviation, but there is always in the right direction adjustment, andthe first industry deviation degree remain high, there is the first industry labor turnout pressure; From the correlation coefficient analysis to see: YunnanProvince, three industrial structure and employment structure show varying degreesof correlation. Longitudinal analysis (1)1978-2010(2)1995-2010(3)1999-2010(4)2005-2010, the four periods of time, can be drawn correlation of the first and secondindustry by growing (1) to (4), until (4) period the second industry reached0.927**,on the contrary, the correlation of the third industry getting worse, anduntil the period of (4) showing the irrelevance of the situation. Description: theprimary industry and the structure of employment has been declining,labor constantly shifted outwards; The third industry production value structure andemployment structure in different growth speed, absorbing speed slow in employment;From within the industry analysis to see: the first industry caused by internal maintraditional industry primarily, other smaller industry development, at present has norole in boosting employment，the second industry heavy industries, faouring heavyindustry is economic contribution to employment small contribution, driven mainlyby manufacturing employment，the third industry traditional of the third industry isabsorbing the main employment, but there is a third industrial transfer to emergingtrends, the emerging of the third industry development is relatively slow, the YunnanProvince human capital deposit is insufficient; The fourth chapter, the fourth chapterYunnan industry structure and employment structure grey model analysis, includingdata show, GM (1,1) model structure of the two parts, from the forecasting resultslook, Yunnan province, the predicted “十二五” planning some distance of the target,about2to5years later；The fifth chapter, Policy Suggestions, mainly analyzes thediscovery in view of above the question, proposes six big countermeasures; the sixth Chapter conclusion and shortage.