Empirical Study On Impact Of China’s Soybean Products Imports On Their Domestic And International Prices

Affected by the land resource constraints and the long-term policy of "Food for the program", China’s soybean production is stagnating. But with the rapid development of domestic food processing industry and animal husbandry, China’s consumption demand of soybean, soybean oil and soybean meal ever-increasing, the gap of domestic supply and demand is huge. Since1996, China’s imports of soybean products continue to increase. In recent years, domestic soybean production is constantly shrinking; Soybean processing industry is controlled by foreign companies gradually; lack of soybean products’pricing right; the fluctuation of soybean products’prices is abnormal; loss frequently of soybean products imports. These are inextricably linked with the large number of China’s soybean products imports. Therefore, it is necessary to analysis the impact of soybean products imports on their domestic and international market prices.Firstly, we analysis the import pattern of China’s soybean products descriptively. And then, we analysis the relationship between the import volume of soybean products and their domestic and international market prices, we also analysis the integration condition of soybean products’domestic markets and international markets, through Johansen co-integration test, error correction models, Granger causality test and impulse response method based on VAR model. On this basis, we analysis the "big market paradox" and the pricing right missing of China’s soybean products imports. Finally, we summarize the conclusions of this paper, give some suggestions from the perspective of production, market, imports, prices, in order to develop China’s soybean industry healthily and sustainability.The results manifested that:China is a great import country of soybean products. The proportion of China’s soybean and soybean oil import volume to their domestic total consumption and world total imports is very large. China’s soybean imports have strong rigid, affect by its early imports in a large extent; soybean domestic price is not the major factor in determining its import volume. Soybean domestic prices will increase when its preliminary import volume increase. Soybean oil imports have certain inertia; it will increase significantly with the increase of its domestic price. Overall, China’s soybean import volume will increase with the rising of its international price; its international price will improve with the increase of its import volume. So, China’s soybean imports only have the negative effects of "large country effect". China’s soybean oil imports will be substantially reduced with the increase of its international price, but doesn’t have "large country effect", soybean meal imports doesn’t have "large country effect". Soybean products’domestic and international spot markets are integrated in long-term, but not integrated in short term. Soybean products’domestic and international futures markets are integrated in long-term and also integrated in short term except domestic soybean meal futures market. International spot prices of soybean products are the Granger reason of their domestic spot prices, conversely is not. Soybean products’ international futures prices and their domestic futures prices are mutually Granger cause. Regardless of the spot markets or futures markets, the response of domestic and international soybean, soybean oil and soybean meal’s prices to their own one standard deviation shock is quickly and strongly, price information passed efficiently between domestic and international markets. As one of the monopsony market, China’s soybean, soybean oil imports have "big market paradox", and lack of imports pricing right, but the imports pricing right of soybean and soybean oil show optimization trend form2001, it is a noteworthy phenomenon.