The Analysis Of China's Soybean Import Increasing

On the first half year of 2008, price for basic raw materials rose sharply, including energy and agricultural product, which made a great pressure in global inflation. And meanwhile, the soybean price kept on soaring, the U.S. soybean index even hitting a new high record in March,2008,1549 cents/bushel, with a increase 26.6%. China used to be the world's largest soybean exporter, but after 1996, with the large impact of genetically modified soybean imports, China became to the world's largest soybean importer; so we wondered which exact factor had led to the great changes on china's import and export soybean market and we also want to find out whether the large number of imported genetically modified soybeans would have a great influence and impact on china's soybean market.I will demonstrate it in this article, draw a conclusion and make some solutions. This paper highlighted the theoretical research related to this article, including resource endowments, comparative advantage theory, Porter's competitive theory, etc., and then introduced some domestic and foreign scholars; the third chapter of this paper talked about the world soybean market, including several major soybean exporter, including USA, Argentina and Brazil, etc, and then focused on U.S. soybean production and trade situation.On the fourth chapter of this article, it described the situation of the country's domestic soybean industry, and also mentioned analysis of China's soybean international competitiveness, demand conditions, resist disasters, import trade and subsidy policy, etc.; on the fifth chapter the paper, we discussed several different elements which had impact on China's soybean import trade, including China's domestic soybean production, the domestic soybean price, international soybean prices, the RMB exchange rate, per capita consumption, the demand for soybean meal and soybean oil, etc., and then got the most significant factors on soybean imports obtained by regression; the final chapter of this paper is analyzed what effect will be brought to China's soybean industry, and what we can do to avoid more losses.