Analysis On Coal Import Origin Of China

The economics of China is growing with a percussive rapid, but behind the rapid; energy consumption problem attracted more and more attention of the word. As accounting for China’s primary energy consumption up to70%of the energy, coal’s stability supply should be worthy our more concern. Especially since2009, the coal imports of China increased with a very fast speed, and became a net importer with just3years; finally, China has become the largest country in the global coal imports with182million tons in2011and China accounting for18.3percent of the global coal trade (933million tons). How much coal does China really have? How much coal does China really need in the next20years? Where and how much does China import for the needing coal? Which is the stable country of origin for China? Therefore, to analyze the coal trade structure is reasonably stable.On the basis of reviewed the research literature extensively, the paper has first analyzed the characters about Chinese coal reserves and consumption. The result shows that the coal supply and demand was deviated because of the geographically uneven distribution and poor transportation between the major coal producing and the coal insufficient provinces. Then the paper quantitative estimates the demand of coal in China for the next20years with elasticity coefficient. The result shows that Chinese demand for coal in the next20years the gap will reach1.5billion tons. China could reach the basic needs and never meet a serious gap between supply and demand with the reasonable adjustments of the coal import structure. But we must pay more attention to the sustainability of the coal imports to ensure the stability of the coal market must. Then next the article analyzed the latest changes in recent years about China’s coal trade and the reasons for the change. The results shows that Chinese coal trade is basically divided into three stages by two important years,2004and2009, in2004with a large number of export-based, and became to the world’s largest coal importer with the rapid growth of coal demand in2009. Then I used hierarchy process, the trade gravity model and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to analyze the factors which affecting the coal export of the Chinese coal origin countries. Quantitative estimates Chinese10major coal source country’s trade dependence. This study shows that it’s very unreasonable for relying mainly on Indonesia, Australia and Vietnam as the main country of coal origin. We should increase coal imports from Mongolia, Russia, and reduce the over-reliance on Indonesia, Vietnam appropriately. At last, the paper gives some suggestions based on three angles as the state, industry and company put forward suggestions on Chinese coal import.