The Analysis Of Factors Affecting China-russia Bilateral Trade In Services:Based On Trade Gravity Model

Since the 20 th century,China’s three major industries have continuously strengthened their opening to the outside world,the scale of international trade has been increasing,and foreign trade has become an important pillar of China’s economic development.In the era of service economy,the international competitiveness of a country’s service trade to a considerable extent also reflects the overall competitiveness of a country’s industry.China’s trade in goods is larger and more competitive than trade in services,and occupies a dominant position in foreign trade,and the overall deficit of China’s trade in services also reflects the lack of capacity and level of service provision in China,in this sense,trade in services still has great potential and space in our national economic development.China and Russia are geographically close to each other,with stable political relations,close strategic interaction and convenient bilateral trade.In recent years,against the background of perennial economic sanctions by many developed countries such as the UK,Japan and the US,bilateral economic and trade cooperation between China and Russia has ushered in new opportunities.Therefore,it is important to continue to consolidate and enhance the advantages of bilateral cooperation between China and Russia in the fields of energy resources,infrastructure,manufacturing,and trade in goods.To this end,this paper takes the bilateral service trade between China and Russia as the theme,and discovers the strengths,weaknesses and complementarities between the two countries in the field of service trade through an in-depth exploration of the bilateral service trade between China and Russia,so as to provide theoretical and practical support for further promoting the service trade cooperation between China and Russia.This paper firstly introduces the scale,industrial structure and characteristics of the respective service trade,and finds that the advantageous and disadvantageous industries of service trade between the two countries overlap highly and the trade structures are similar.Secondly,the scale characteristics,growth,industrial structure and international competitiveness of bilateral service trade are analyzed,and it is found that both sides maintain a perennial deficit in service trade,but the difference is on a decreasing trend,and the overall and the international competitiveness of each industry is generally weak and lacking.Meanwhile,it is found that international conflicts and natural disaster events have a significant impact on service trade.Subsequently,this paper conducted a qualitative analysis of the impact of six factors on bilateral service trade between China and Russia: economic scale,trade in goods,technology level,industrial structure,new crown epidemic,Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Europe sanctions,and based on which an extended trade gravity model was established to verify the impact of relevant factors on bilateral service trade between China and Russia.The results show that the bilateral service trade volume between China and Russia is positively correlated with the total trade in goods between the two countries and the share of value added in China’s service sector,and negatively correlated with the share of investment in science and technology in Russia,the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the U.S.-European sanctions.Finally,this paper puts forward policy recommendations for the development of bilateral service trade between China and Russia based on the research results.They are: optimizing the industry structure of bilateral service trade;expanding the space of bilateral service trade cooperation by relying on trade in goods;enhancing the competitiveness of service industry to promote the scale of bilateral service trade;and ensuring the stable development of bilateral service trade with the help of risk prevention mechanism.These measures will help promote the development of bilateral service trade between China and Russia and enhance the economic cooperation between the two sides.