| In recent years, regional economic integration is developing rapidly, more and more countries are trying to cooperate with each other to establish the free trade zone. In this instance, China and ASEAN signed the formal The Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation between China and ASEAN in November 2002. This is the first FTA that China joined and also first for ASEAN. After joining into this FTA, the bilateral trade between China and ASEAN has a sharp rise in over 10 years. CAFTA promotes a huge trade potential and then become one of the important market for China’s foreign trade.For researching the trade effect result from CAFTA, China can collate those experiences and practices to develop further regional economic integration. Based on related theory and empirical test, this paper distinguishes trade creation effect and trade diversion effect. Then I use the panel data from 2000 to 2014 to analysis the trade effect in CAFTA, based on the gravity model. At the same time, I divide this panel date into three phases when doing the research, as for the CAFTA is going though for a long time. By analysis this three phases, we can observe the changing effect the CAFTA created.From this model gets the conclusion that:CAFTA promotes the bilateral trade between China and ASEAN with trade creation effect while the trade diversion effect is not obvious. As a result, the CAFTA has a positive trade effect for China. From year 2002 to 2014, the trade creation effect is very strong and then it becomes decreasing gradually.Finally, this paper raises some suggestions for the further CAFTA, based on the current situation and problems. China and ASEAN countries should make full use of their unique economic and resource advantages to seek for industry upgrading and trade competition reducing. China should also make full use of current foreign trade policy to develop financial service and cross-border investment, in order to integrate into the global integration. |
PDF Full Text Request