Evaluation Of The Rationality Of The Virtual Water And Land Resources Flow Of Agricultural Produce Among Chinese Provinces

With an increasing shortage of water resource, being relatively poor in land resource and non-ideal match of the water and land resources in China, it is especially important to guarantee security of food, water and land resources as well as ecosystem. From the perspective of virtual resource, this thesis proposes the concept,"The Rationality of Virtual Water and Land Resource Flow", evaluates it quantitatively and discusses the solutions to proper utilization and sustainable development of the water and land resources, based on the analysis of the current status and suitability of the virtual water and land resources flow of the agricultural produce in all provinces of China.First, the per capita and total amount of the virtual water and cultivated land resources from2001to2010in each province are calculated by modeling to represent the virtual water and land resources flow of the agricultural produce in China respectively. The result shows that:(1) The total amounts of the virtual water and land resources in the country are relatively rich, but there are obvious differences in regions which presents as "More in north and less in south";(2) In most of the provinces the virtual water and land resources of agricultural produce flow in a stable direction, which is shown as "Northern water flows to the south, northern land flows to the south" all over the country;(3) There are distinguishing differences in the direction and amount of the virtual water and land resources flow of the agricultural produce;(4) The flow of the virtual water and land resources are significantly different in different agricultural produce, and animal produce has the biggest flow.Then, from the perspectives of water resource, land resource and combination of the two respectively, the rationality of the virtual water and land flow of agricultural produce is analyzed. This thesis builds an evaluation index system of the suitability of the virtual water and land resources flow of each province in China in four aspects:natural resource endowment, agricultural development basis, social economic development level and ecological environment. This system is used to calculate the suitability of the virtual water and land resources flow of agricultural produce in each province by comprehensive weight summation and analyze the influencing factors. Besides, this thesis builds a quantitative evaluation model to calculate the rationality index of the virtual water and land resources flow of agricultural produce among provinces in China.Considering the water and land factor comprehensively, the research result shows that:(1) It is more reasonable to evaluate the rationality of the virtual water and land resources flow of agricultural produce in the way based on the perspective of coupling water and land resources than the way in which only the virtual water or cultivated land resource flow of agricultural produce of the water or land resource is considered;(2) The places that are suitable to output the virtual water resource of agricultural produce are more than those input;(3) Most of the places that are suitable to output the virtual water resource are located in the inland, and the inputs is mostly located in the coastal area;(4) The entire rationality level of the virtual water flow of each province in the country are not high, with Shanghai, Shanxi, Jilin and etc., being the rational cities and Guizhou being the most irrational city;(5) The distribution of the rationality doesn’t have any obvious regional rule;(6) According to the current status of the suitability of the virtual water flow of agricultural produce of each province in China, the adjustment could be divided into six types:control output, encouraging output, control input, encouraging input, conversion input, conversion output.At last, the solutions to execute the virtual water and land resources strategy are given in the purpose of strengthening national macro-control, optimizing the agricultural structure, enhancing water and land resource management.