Kunming Real Estate Cycle Empirical Research

The real estate industry has the important status in the national economy development.Most of the real estate industry has become a pillar industry in China. The healthydevelopment of the real estate related to the overall economic development. In recentyears, real estate prices there has been rapid growth of the phenomenon. The realestate market as the focus of national macro-control study of real estate cyclefluctuations and fluctuations in the relationship between the economic cycle, factorsaffecting real estate cycle has a very important practical significance. This paperstudies the real estate market cycle fluctuations in Kunming presented a force, butalso in practice, provide reference for the government led to the stable development ofthe real estate market.Our current research on the real estate cycle is mainly focused on qualitative research,but a large part of the internal research industry research, quantitative analysis of thevarious factors less.In the theoretical part, this paper introduces the theoretical study abroad for real estatecycles and economic cycles, including the two definitions, types, operation principle. Article is illustrated in the real estate cycle and the economic cycle interactions. At thesame time, The article describes the current state of the macro economy, regionaleconomic situation in Kunming and Kunming real estate market situation as well asshortcomings. Moreover, This article summarizes collected in2000-2012to theestate of our government policies, laying the groundwork for the later study.In the empirical part, we selected the2000to2012on the main factors affecting theeconomic cycle fluctuations. Select the use of GDP as the dependent variable. Selectthe real estate investment, total fixed asset investment, inflation and interest rates fouras the independent variable VAR model.Then, the paper selected on the same period of the main factors affecting the realestate cycle fluctuations. Select the national housing climate index as the dependentvariable. The impact of fluctuations in the real estate cycle, based on three categories of indicators, selected integrated real estate investment, investment in fixed assets ofGDP, inflation rate, interest rates, completion of the area, the average price of realestate, real estate sales, per capita disposable income. This article several factors asindependent variables the model analysis.Finally, the article will be the economic cycle and the combination of the real estatecycle analysis. Use of cointegration modeled and tested. Thus found that, although thereal estate cycle fluctuations larger, but the growth and economic cycles showconsistency. And it is higher than the rate of economic growth. The healthydevelopment of the real estate market in China’s economic development plays a vitalrole.The innovation is also the policy of this article do a quantitative analysis of factors.This paper studies the impact of policies on the real estate cycle, real estate, In thispaper,2000to February2013the main indicators of the real estate-the nationalhousing climate index, a total of153index, smoothed, using HP filtering method tosmooth the real estate cycle research. Will be divided according to the fluctuations in2000to early2013for the five long period, combined with the policy of each periodfor analysis.The article on the current real estate cycle and business cycle of Kunming situationsummarized. Analytical articles on real estate fluctuations and macroeconomic factors. The article gives adjustment cycle fluctuations, proposals and policies to maintain thehealthy development of the market.