An Innovative Study Of Food Security In Four Typical Grassland Ecological-economic Regions

Food security is a critical policy issue related to livelihoods and social stability in China. Many factors act as influencers and indicators of food security, with population growth and the reduction of arable land being the primary factors threatening it. Accordingly, in this paper the main line of population, land use and food in Gansu is analyzed. Specific attention is paid to the relationships between population increase, food supply and food consumption, including the impacts of urbanization, changes in dietary structure and changes in arable land use, in order to explore an innovative approach for understanding and improving regional food security and providing a reference for the four typical grassland ecological-economic regions described within. The major conclusions were as follows:1. An analysis of changes in grain production from2000-2009compared with population statistics revealed that the years of grain production increase are less than that of population increase and the years of grain production decrease are more than that of population decrease. Output of grain per capita tended to increase overall, and was354.41kg in2009, which increased75.37kg in ten years, but still does not meet the national objective400kg per capita. The tight grain supply situation cannot be changed in the short term.2. Throughout2000-2009, pork, beef and mutton production figures showed growth rates that were broadly consistent with the population growth rate in Gansu province. Pork production showed more extreme fluctuations compared to other meats. Output of beef and mutton per capita showed a trend of increase and Gansu’s challenges regarding imbalance of meat production and consumption compared to national levels for various meat products have eased in recent years. The proportion of pastorally produced livestock still needs to be increased to compare with world standards.3. Using Food Equivalent Units as a basis to calculate2005-2009beef and mutton production and consumption in Gansu revealed that the volume of production was able to meet the demand of the provincial population, and the remaining amount could serve as an alternate food source with greater nutritive potential. It was found that the surplus quantity of beef and mutton could replace increasing wheat and cultivated land year by year from2005to2009, and in2009, it could replace272.45×104tons wheat, conserving equal to957270hm2wheat sowing area. This indicates that herbivorous livestock development can alleviate the pressure on food production4. Examining statistical records of changing food production rates and total sown area in Gansu from2005to2009revealed that total sown area changes. Pearson correlation analysis results showed that the increase of grain yield per hectare contributes more to the total grain production in Gansu than the increase of sown area. Grassland occupies the largest proportion of agricultural land in Gansu and its production potential is not fully realized, therefore improving integrated land productivity is the key to food security in Gansu Province.5. The implementation of agro-grassland systems for production is an effective means to improve food security in Gansu.6. By converting20%of the existing cultivated land for grass-crop rotation, establishing3%of the available grassland as high-yielding pasture and by taking full advantage of the fallow field or free land, the arable land equivalent units (ALEU) under production in Gansu would reach970million hectares. Food production would be2.5times of the current agricultural system.7. Based on three scenarios assuming high, medium or low grass yield, the impact on provincial food supply of proportionally changing cultivated land into pasture were simulated and analyzed through linear models. The results show that, under the premise of the grain supply no less than300kg per capita,13percent of cultivated land can be used for forage production. In the lower pasture productivity scenario (3tons of hay per hectare), when the arable land converted into grassland proportion increases, the total number of food equivalent units decline, and when the conversion ratio is13%, the total number of food equivalent units decreased by2.9%. Close to the medium level of productivity (6tons of hay per hectare), an average pasture production rate of5.08tons of hay per hectare of converted land, regardless of what percentage of arable land is change into pasture, will result in no change to total productivity, achieving a dynamic balance. In the high pasture productivity scenario (10tons of hay per hectare), when13%of the arable land is used for forage production, the number of total provincial food equivalent units is increased by1.2%. Thus, it is demonstrated that changing cultivated land into pasture may have both positive and negative effects on food security and success depends on the potential productivity of the pasture.