Research On The Path To Realize China’s Food Security With Inadequate Water And Land Resources

The "Fourteenth Five Year Plan" period is the first five years of the new journey of building a socialist modern country in an all-round way.Based on the unprecedented changes in the world in a century,and facing the great rejuvenation strategy of the Chinese nation,ensuring national food security is of extraordinary value and significance to the construction of a community with a shared future for mankind.At present,China’s grain harvest has been bumper year after year,but the foundation of food security is still not solid,especially the problems of insufficient supply,unbalanced matching and unreasonable utilization of food production resources.In the face of challenges such as the rigid growth of China’s grain demand,the hard constraints on the supply of production resources such as water and soil,and the uncertainty of foreign imported resources,China’s grain supply and demand will remain in a tight balance for a long time in the future.Therefore,in accordance with the new strategy of national food security under the new situation,and in combination with China’s people,food and national conditions,we should deeply explore the development mode,realization path and guarantee mechanism of China’s food security,which has important practical significance and theoretical value for China to build a strong agricultural country,promote socialist agricultural modernization,and achieve the second century goal.Based on the resource scarcity theory,industrial security theory,public goods theory and other related theories,this paper takes China and 13 major grain producing regions as the research object,and explores the realization path and guarantee mechanism of food security in China based on the constraints of water and soil resources.Firstly,the current situation of China’s food supply,demand and trade in the past 20 years is sorted out,and the overall situation of China’s food security is objectively evaluated in combination with the constraints of water and soil resources;Secondly,the regional characteristics and spatio-temporal matching pattern of water and soil resources in China and the main grain producing areas are analyzed from the perspective of China’s physical water and soil resources to reveal the hard constraints of water and soil resources on China’s food security;Then,from the perspective of virtual water and soil resources,the surplus and deficit of domestic virtual water and soil resources and the spatial distribution law are studied,and the main factors and driving forces affecting the virtual food water and soil resources trade are explored;Finally,based on the empirical analysis results and China’s food security strategic planning,explore the path to achieve food security under the constraints of water and soil resources in line with China’s national conditions and security mechanisms.Specifically,the main research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)Water and soil resources have a crucial restriction and guarantee relationship to China’s food security.Based on the theory of resource scarcity,factor endowment,public goods and other related theories,the paper analyzes the mechanism of water and soil resources and virtual water and soil resources and China’s food security,and concludes that excessive consumption and unreasonable use of China’s physical water and soil resources,as well as excessive dependence on virtual water and soil resources,will threaten China’s food security,and protectively develop domestic water and soil resources and appropriately use domestic and foreign food virtual water and soil resources,It can effectively guarantee the long-term food security of China.(2)At present,China’s overall food security needs to be strengthened.Through the analysis of the sustainable development status of China’s food production resources,such as food production,trade,consumption,water and soil,it is found that China’s food rigid demand growth,large international trade,high concentration of source countries,single import varieties,while domestic food production and supply are greatly constrained by water and soil resources,which is not conducive to China’s food security.Based on the theory of industrial security,the empirical evaluation of China’s food industry security was carried out using the DEA based analysis method.The results show that China’s food industry has been in a safe state in the past 20 years,but in individual years,especially in recent years,China’s food industry is not safe enough due to the impact of trade policies,political relations,natural disasters,emergencies,etc.To sum up,improving the rate of food itself,reducing dependence on foreign countries and enhancing international competitiveness can effectively ensure and enhance China’s food security.(3)The domestic physical water and soil resources have a significant restrictive effect on China’s food security.Taking the damping coefficient of water resources as the main research method,it is concluded that the main grain producing areas in China are obviously constrained by water resources and have significant damping effects;Further,based on Moran’I index method,Lisa cluster analysis diagram is made for the damping coefficient of water resources in the main grain producing areas.It is found that the damping effect of water resources in grain production in the provinces of the main grain producing areas presents obvious regional agglomeration characteristics;Using the cultivated land productivity evaluation model,it is concluded that the cultivated land productivity tends to rise steadily after 2010;The model of factor transfer gravity center shows that the gravity center of cultivated land area in the main production areas is always located in Shandong Province during the study period,and the gravity center changes from southwest to middle,and then to northeast;The modified cultivated land pressure index model shows that the cultivated land pressure index in the main grain producing areas in the study period is generally in a downward trend,showing a spatial distribution pattern of high in the south and low in the north;Combined with the driving force model of food security and the food security assessment model,it is concluded that chemical fertilizer is the main factor to promote the growth of China’s grain output over the years;The analysis of the coupling relationship between cultivated land resources and food security in major grain producing areas shows that the overall coupling degree of major grain producing areas is within 0.15,and the coupling relationship between cultivated land resources and food security is slight;The measurement results of water soil grain matching degree and the characteristics of temporal and spatial changes show that the water resources and cultivated land resources in the main grain producing areas in China are extremely mismatched,and the water and soil resources in the major grain producing provinces have the most obvious constraint effect on grain production.It is concluded that large grain producing provinces have made outstanding contributions to national food security at the cost of natural resources such as water and soil consumption for many years.Therefore,protecting domestic water and soil resources and promoting sustainable development of water and soil resources are important ways to solve the constraints of domestic water and soil resources on China’s food security at this stage.(4)Virtual water and soil resources at home and abroad can effectively alleviate the current food security problems in China.From 2001 to 2019,the virtual water surplus and deficit in the main production areas remained stable at about 20 billion cubic meters.The spatial distribution of virtual water production and consumption surplus and deficit conformed to the normal law.The virtual water surplus in each province was sufficient and stable.The surplus and deficit of virtual cultivated land in the main production areas are generally about 50 million hectares.The spatial distribution of the surplus and deficit of virtual cultivated land production and consumption has changed greatly.Areas with insufficient surplus have increased significantly,expanding from the south to the central and western regions;The calculation results of the stochastic frontier gravity model show that in the international food virtual water and soil resources trade,the total population of the countries of both sides of the food trade,the economic level variables of the exporting countries,and whether the sea has a positive effect on the food resources trade;The distance between the two countries has a restraining effect on the trade of food resources,hindering the exchange and cooperation of food resources between countries;FTA can promote international trade in food resources.The empirical results show that the water and soil resources in the main grain producing areas can provide for the people in the region,but they are under great pressure to support the food demand of the people throughout the country.Therefore,if we want to enhance the competitiveness of the grain market to weaken the control of foreign capital market,we must continue to actively participate in and build a global trade cooperation platform,select grain trading countries with cooperative advantages,and constantly expand and explore international high-quality food resources.Based on the above research conclusions,combined with the results of empirical analysis and practical needs,according to the principles of food sovereignty,food security,food industry security,and based on the theory of "new pattern of double cycle development",and based on China’s "new strategy for food security",the realization path of China’s food security under the constraint of water and soil resources is proposed from the aspects of "taking China as the main force,taking China as the base,ensuring production capacity,scientific and technological support,and appropriate import",It also proposes to strengthen policy formulation,innovate organization and management,improve benefit compensation,improve laws and regulations,and clarify the security mechanism of accountability,with a view to providing reference for the state and government departments to solve the problem of ensuring China’s food security under the current constraints of water and soil resources,Provide suggestions and suggestions for accelerating the construction of a socialist modern agricultural power supported by food security.