The Study Of Real Estate Market Risk In Guangzhou Based On VaR

A quantitative model to measure real estate market accumulative risk was putforward based on theories of Value at Risk (VaR) with real estate industry commercialhousing vacancy rate as the object and real estate industry commercial housingeconomy of Guangzhou was analyzed from three aspects: demand, supply and market.Concretely, the paper mainly includes:(1) Expatiate the correlative theories, analytical methods and their virtue anddeficiency while applied to analyze domestic real estate economy.(2) Discuss the signification of vacancy rate and correlative statistical method.(3) Expatiate the principle and main calculation methods of VaR as well as itssignification and applicability on calculation vacancy rate.(4) The antilogy of SD is used for reference to analyze the real estate industrycommercial housing which is analyzed into three parts: demand, supply and market,and then analyzed into more particular parts. Eviews is applied to get regressionequation.(5) Establish a model of real estate industry commercial housing of Guangzhou;Program in R language to simulate the distribute of vacancy rate of commercial housing ofGuangzhou in 2007; Finally, settle some reliability to calculate the Value at Risk(VaR)of the vacancy rate.