Study On The Method Of Complex Product Development Risk Assessment And Decision-making

Along with the high-speed progress of science and technology, complex products have bigger application scale and more types in military and civilian applications. In addtion, its development is paid more and more attention.Complex product development process is generally broken down into a number of relatively independent subsystems to develop in a parallel or serial way so that subsystems more or less correlate to each other, which increases the risk of the development of complex products. The current complex product development risk is generally more concerned about the cost risk and schedule risk.Many scholars and experts have proposed a lot of methods to solve these problems at home and abroad, but because of their own limitations and shortcomings, new models and methods should be put forward. Main contents of this paper are as follows:(1)Schedule risk assessment method based on simulation of extended Petri net is proposed. Firstly, this article models the WBS, resource allocation, task period andtask overlapping relationship on the schedule simulation based on high-level Petri nets(hierarchy, coloured, stochastic, timed), and extends transition constraints of Petri netstaking into account the actual needs of the project; Secondly, this article studies the mechanism of transition state change,deadlock handling approach and scheduling model; Lastly,schedule risk assessment calculation method is given based on the simulation results.(2)Multi-dimension cost estimate model based on the parameters (MCEMBP) is proposed, which can reflect the relationship in the complex product development among the four dimensions:the WBS dimension,the PBS dimension,the Resoure Dimension and the Time Dimension. Combining with the method of the schedule simulation above,cost calculation method is given based on the MCEMBP; Finally, cost risk assessment method of complex product development is given based on simulation results as well as preliminary studies of a joint risk of schedule and cost.(3)Based on the model and method above, a risk assessment system for a complex product development is designed and implemented, the overall architecture of the system, the system function modules and subsystem function are discussed in detail.The system function is demonstrated by one case.