Research On Environmental On-line Monitoring Trend Data Combined With Predictive Analysis

Shandong province is one of the largest industrial provinces in China. With the rapidly development of economy and industry, the total amount of pollutant emissions is increasing, the total discharge of pollutants occupy the countrywide front row. Water pollutants and atmospheric pollutants have been the top one in China, so it is particularly prominent for contradiction between the amount of pollutant emissions’ large and environmental capacity’s small. Especially now, the government and people’s request of the living environment quality is more and more high, so the task of environmental protection work is more and more difficult. For it can provide a reference basis for environmental monitoring and environmental safety pre-warning to current analysis and forecast analysis based on the environment on-line monitoring data. So the supervision of the government to the enterprise is from passive to active managing, effectively reduced enterprise malignant blow-down and overweight pollution emission. At the same time, it raised the ability of the environmental management department to the key sources of pollution monitoring and management. It has important practical significance to improve the environmental quality, ensure the environment safety, service science development.According to "The management information is about environment on-line monitoring system in Shandong province", we extract and analyze seven enterprises’ real-time monitoring data. First of all, in this paper, the enterprises’wastewater COD concentration, NH3-N concentration and wastewater emissions and other major data indexes are carried on the analysis. Secondly, grey prediction model and exponential smoothing model were used to predict the future amount of pollutant emissions. Finally, according to the forecast results put forward industrial enterprise management measures in order to efficient control emissions of pollutants. Main results are in the following:(1) Analyzing COD concentration and NH3-N concentration of wastewater among the different enterprise2011annual discharge of pollutants, we can find the emissions concentration is sometimes raising and sometime falling, but the overall trend is decline in2011year.(2) The discharge of waste water COD and NH3-N concentration is higher in1,2,3,4months, and is low in8,9,10month in same enterprise of different years. In a word, it has a trend that emissions concentration is higher in first half year and is lower in last half year.(3) The amount of wastewater emissions is lower in first half year and is higher in last half year in different enterprise of2011year,, and the and higher months have strengthen trend. For the same company, after data analysis, we found that it is low in the first half year and is high in the second half year.(4) In the waste water, it has a basically positive correlation between COD concentration and COD emissions, COD emissions and waste emissions. However, it has a basically negative correlation between COD concentration and wastewater emissions.(5) In the waste water, it has a positive correlation between NH3-N concentration and NH3-N emissions, NH3-N emissions and waste emissions. However, it has a negative correlation between NH3-N concentration and wastewater emissions.(6) In the waste water, it has little direct correlation between COD concentration and NH3-N concentration. For the same enterprise, according to data analyzing, we establish the model and verified it. So the model as follows: COD concentration=4.675*COD emissions+1.688*NH3-N concentration-8.155*NH3-N emissions+0.0001*wastewater emissions+49.656(7) The grey prediction model is used to predict the month average of the different pollutants concentration and wastewater emissions in different enterprises. The results show that COD concentration and NH3-N concentration present reduced trend among most of the waste water enterprise wastewater pollutants. And wastewater emissions is a rising trend in most enterprises, but only one enterprise’ wastewater emissions present situation of a decline trend.(8) The exponential smoothing model is used to predict the month average of the different pollutants concentration and wastewater emissions in same enterprise. The results show that contaminant concentration and Wastewater emissions are both present rising.According to enterprises’ supervision level and the emission standards in Shandong province, using the above analysis and prediction results can be effectively and actively to supervise and intervention management to the key enterprises. At the same time, in view of the present situation, we put forward to some reasonable countermeasures and suggestions of controlling enterprise pollutant discharge from the technical level, management level and policy environment three aspects.