Analysis And Forecast Of Tourism Information In Zhoushan City Based On Data Mining

With the rapid development of social economy,people's demand for tourism has gradually increased.Zhoushan is China's first national-level new archipelago,where the tourism industry is developing rapidly.The number of tourists is increasing year by year,and so is the total tourism revenue.However,there are still many problems that need to be improved in the development of the tourism industry.Therefore,researching,analyzing and predicting the number of tourists and total tourism revenue in Zhoushan not only has important theoretical value,but also has very important practical significance.It can enable relevant government departments to implement work and strengthen management,and at the same time,it will actively promote the sound development of Zhoushan's tourism industry.This paper selects mathematical models to predict and analyze the number of tourists in Zhoushan,the total tourism income,and the recovery of its tourism industry after the epidemic.The main tasks are as follows:(1)The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model(ARIMA)and the HoltWinters seasonal model in the exponential smoothing method are used to predict the number of monthly tourists in Zhoushan.Firstly,when constructing the ARIMA model,the original tourist population sequence is logarithmized and the seasonal difference is carried out.Through testing,it is concluded that among the several ARIMA models established,ARIMA(1,1,1)has the smallest error and is consistent with Claim.The Holt-Winters additive model and the Holt-Winters multiplicative model in the exponential smoothing method are established.After testing,it is concluded that the Holt-Winters multiplicative model has smaller errors.By comparing the prediction accuracy of the ARIMA(1,1,1)model and the Holt-Winters multiplicative model,and selecting the Holt-Winters multiplicative model with higher accuracy,we can predict the number of tourists in Zhoushan(2)A number of relevant influencing factor indicators are selected to conduct a gray correlation analysis on the total tourism revenue of Zhoushan City.According to the calculation results,it is shown that the number of tourists and the regional GDP are the main and secondary influencing factors.The grey forecasting GM(1,1)model is used to predict the total annual tourism income of Zhoushan,and the calculation results verify that the forecasting accuracy of this model is high.(3)The recovery of the Zhoushan tourism market is analyzed,the Holt-Winters multiplicative model selected in this article is used to predict the number of tourists in Zhoushan in 2020,and it is compared with the actual monthly tourism data of Zhoushan in2020 affected by the epidemic,and recovery through the market Rate calculation finds that in the face of the challenge of the epidemic.The Zhoushan tourism market has recovered rapidly,and that it has basically returned to normal in September,and the forecast is in line with actual requirements.