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Drug Use Network Complex Agent Network Model And Simulation Analysis For The Spread Of Hiv

Posted on:2013-07-02Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:J Y LuanFull Text:PDF
GTID:2248330374965347Subject:Computer application technology
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) is the epidemic diseases, and it caused by the human immunodeficiency virus, to date there is no effective cure. HIV/AIDS transmission dynamics model is an important means to understand the rules of infectious diseases, scientific research through the model from the core population of HIV through sexual spread to the general population, can guide the country to find effective blocking strategies, rationally use the resources and adjust its strategy to more effectively carry out the social behavior intervention, and moreover, it has have an important reference for other infectious diseases models. HIV/AIDS epidemic, the study of the transmission dynamics model related to a number of factors and the interaction, so the problem becomes not only complex and difficult, but also challenging.Infectious diseases dynamic models which based on the complex network is a hot research topic in recent years, from the research trends at home and abroad, it still have some shortcomings. For example, the studying of transmission route is often some high-risk groups; it ignores autonomy of the complex network nodes and ability to adapt to the environment and policy control during complex network modeling; Most of the models were assumed that the relationship between people in society as regular networks and random networks, and ignored the important influence of social network topology to disease transmission.The aim of this thesis is to research spread simulation and mechanism simulation about HIV/AIDS in complex social systems and social networks in the Yunnan or China. And then present a method for describing the characteristics and dynamics of HIV virus propagation, characterizing the complex interactions among individuals by generating HIV virtual complex agent networks so as to support stochastic simulations. Afterwards, we can predict the trends of infectious diseases by analyzing simulation results, and then support public health policy making based on features of viruses concerned.Firstly, proposing the assumptions of relationships networks mass media model, and the corresponding network generation algorithm, the interaction rules of the individual opinion, then do simulations of different parameters for the model.Secondly, to bring forward a cave-small-world network model of the HIV spread in intravenous drug users. Setting five types individual and transformation rules among individuals, given the impact factor calculation method; and then do simulations from three aspects of the crowd, social network factors and policy interventions factors.Finally, taking into account the influence of public opinion factors to model, combined the various impact factors of the spread of HIV in IDU, and established co-evolution the hybrid model. Compared with the previous method, model considered the behavior factors is more comprehensive and better reflect the facts of China and Yunnan regions of HIV transmission.This study can effectively support the modeling and simulation of HIV virus propagation, and provides a general reference procedure and framework for mimicking virus propagation in the real world. Quantitative analyses of the spreading of infectious diseases, conducted based on this study, helps theoretically and practically to investigate the interdictions of other infectious diseases.
Keywords/Search Tags:Agent, BA Scale-free network, Cave small world network, HIVtransmission, Intravenous drug users
PDF Full Text Request
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