Xi 'an And Winter Wheat Production Fitness Evaluation Of Climate Change

In recent years,climate change was becoming warm and one of the most important issues in the world,which caused a growing number of experts and scholars for attention and concern.And scholars concerned not just only the climate change itself,but took more attention to the impacts of climate change and how human society should adapt the climate change.Agriculture is one of the larger industry affected by climate change in all industries. So it’s a very interesting topic to explore the impacts of climate change on agricultural production and how to adapt. Wheat is one of the most output in China,so take Xi’an as study area to analyze the climate change characteristics in recent50years and the human driving forces in climate change.Based on this and discussed the influence that brought by the climate change to the winter wheat production and the adaption.It has a certain significance that winter wheat production how to respond to climate change and sustainable developmentThis paper selected monthly temperature and precipitation data in Xi’an and its surrounding seven meteorological stations from1961to2010, using the method of mathematical statistics analysis to analyze the climate variation characteristics in recent50years in Xi’an.Following the scientific principle of selected indicators, this paper selected social-economic indicators in Xi’an from1989to2010by using principal component analysis to evaluate the human driving forces in climate change.Finally,it selected the winter wheat yield per unit data in recent30years in Xi’an and developed the model of winter wheat production on the degree of effect ion and adaption, and analyzed the effect of climate change on winter wheat production and evaluated the degree of adaption.The main conclusion are as follows:(1)In the recent50years, the trend of average annual temperature appeared to be warmer by the0.288℃/10a rate,and the speed of warming is slower before1994than after1994.From era changers view, the general trend of temperature of per era appeared to be warmer except1960s;From seasonal variation,the general trend of temperature in four seasons appeared to be warmer also,and in the spring and winter increased fast,but it’s relatively slow in summer and fall and below the average for the whole year,especially in summer,0.0017℃/a.Using the method of Mann-Kendall test,we found that temperature abrupt change happened in1995.The temperature in center was higher than surrounding areas.(2)In the recent50years, the precipitation was volatility decreasing by the rate of12.243mm/10a in Xi’an.From era changers view, and the precipitation fluctuated up and down from1960s to2000s;From the feature of seasonal change,the precipitation had an increase trend in summer and winter,but a reduce trend in spring and fall.Using the method of Mann-Kendall test,we found that precipitation abrupt change happened in1976.The precipitation in center was lower than surrounding areas.(3)The climate change characteristics in winter wheat growth period in Xi’an was analyzed.There were significant regional differences in temperature that the western was the highest,the central was second and the eastern was the lowest;the average of accumulated precipitation in central was the lest.(4)Human driving forces in temperature variation of Xi’an can be summarized as two aspects which include urban and rural economic and social life development and the agricultural development;the human driving forces in precipitation variation in Xi’an can be generalized as following:water supply condition and ecological use of water and social-economic development.According to calculate the comprehensive scores of human driving forces effected climate change in Xi’an in recent22years,we drown that human driving forces effected climate change became stronger year by year.And human driving forces in temperature was stronger than human driving forces in precipitation before1996.(5)The degree of effect ion of winter wheat under climate analysis showed that the temperature effect ion was20.55%,the precipitation effect ion was5.25%,and the comprehensive effect ion was12.9%;The adaption calculation showed that TAD rose and the average of TAD was94.08%and belonged to highly to adapt;PAD rose and the average of PAD was93.06%and belonged to highly to adapt;CAD in the relatively small range fluctuate change.In addition,from the regions differences to see,whether PAD,CAD,or CAD,it’s lower in center region than in western and eastern areas,namely the adaption of center area was the lowest.