Analysis On The Fluctuation In Rice Yield Of Hubei Province In Recent20Years

Crop yield is influenced by the natural and social factors, showing some of the fluctuation characteristics. The analysis of fluctuation could reveal varieties and causes of crop yield, which would provide the basis for reducing volatility, guaranteeing the safety and efficiency in crop production. But the growth of rice production was not a stable change process in recent20years in Hubei province. The fluctuation in rice production directly related to sustained and stable growth of grain production in Hubei province and security of food supply in China, which affected stable grain supplies ability and smooth progress of agricultural sustainable development. Therefore this paper chose the problem of the fluctuation in Hubei’s crop production to research and discuss. It might provide the theoretical basis for steady growth in Hubei’s rice yied and meanwhile provide scientifical base for rice production decision.This research mainly used Hubei rural economic statistical annual of1991-2010year, Jingzhou statistical annual of1991-2010year date, investigated the basic date of rice production in Hubei province. Based on the method of wavelet rice yield fluctuation, plant areas and yield per unit area in Hubei province from1900to2009were analyzed to find out the main factors of affecting plant areas and yield. By calculating and analyzing the affect on the rice yield in rice per unit area yield> the rice sown area and both of them. At the same time, it chose the typical rice production bases which contained Honghu and Jianli to analyze the reason for rice fluctuation carefully. It analyzed how the early-season、the middle-season the late-season rice and rice yield change in recent20years in Honghu and Jianli. The conclusions are as follows:1) The per unit area yield in early-season、middle-season and late-season rice didn’t change so much on a whole in recent20years. The change of the planting area in recent20years could be divided into two parts:the plant area decreased before2003, planting area of the early rice and late rice plant area decreased from1997to2003, but the middle-season rice went against with them. After that the planting area increased steadily. The change of the rice yield in recent20years could be divided into three parts, the rice yield increased from1990to1997, decreased from1997to2003, and then increased again2)The fluctuation in rice per unit area yields rice planting area and rice yield belonged to the typical fluctuation. They fluctuated in short period and big range, but they had a trend of fluctuating into a long cycle.3) Taking all factors into consideration, we could find that the main reason for the fluctuation in per unit area yield of rice was the climate, the second is social and technological causes. Attaching more importance to develop resistance breeding and the technical system of disaster prevention was very necessary. The main reasons for causing the fluctuation in rice planting area were the national policy. Keeping the rice planting area in balance was the key to ensure the safety of the rice production. Three measures could be put forward to do with it. The government should put much emphasis on protecting the cultivated land. In addition, the government should deal with the adjustment of rice and others growing structures seriously. What’s more, it’s very necessary to increase the early rice and late rice area.4)The fluctuation in per unit area yield of rice was the main reason for the fluctuation in rice yield from1990to1994, after that the fluctuation in rice planting area was the main reason for the fluctuation in rice yield.5)By calculating and analyzing the average annual growth rate of rice yield in Honghu and Jianli from2003to2009and the change of the early-season、 middle-season and late-season rice planting area at this period in Honghu and Jianli. We could find the best way to increase the rice yield steadily was to increase the double cropping rice planting area.