Causes And Countermeasures For Drought To Agriculture In North Hubei Province

North Hubei province agriculture occupies an important position in our country, but the productions fluctuate frequently for serious drought disasters. It has a very big impact on the country food security and the stable growth of farmers' income. To achieve both uses the local resources fully, reduce the losses of agricultural drought to maximum, and safeguard the steady progression of agricultural, how can we adjust our behavior is a subject which this article studies. This article analyzed the drought disaster occurrence characteristic in history and the reason; then, this paper refers the successful experience of drought disaster mitigation and in light of local resources and environmental characteristics, On these basis, the synthesis defense countermeasure of agricultural drought disaster's has be given, and the monthly drought degree' forecasting model has been established by statistical method. This paper may be useful for some administrators such as water conservancy, agriculture, civil administration and other departments. They may find some good measures to disaster reduction and prevention.This article is mainly composed of the following four parts:The first part is a foreword, has analyzed the background of this article topic and the research significance, introduced domestic and foreign progresses in this domain research at present and studied the general situation of the region, and proposed my mentality and the method.The second parts are the drought's occurrence laws and origin research in north Hubei province. First of all, we analyze the characteristics of this region's historical drought, and then analyze the reasons for the formation of agricultural drought. The main causes as follows: climate and weather factors, water conservancy construction is lagging behind, a fragile ecological environment, topography and soil factors, increasing water demand and reducing transit water volume.The third part is drought forecasting research. In this chapter, after introducing data origin, we defined the local drought degree measure method, then we seek for the earlier strong forecast signal (particularly in advance above 3 months) of drought degree each month (4～10) from numerous climate's factors and established the monthly drought degree' forecasting model using historical (1958～2005) inter-related data on the region.The fourth part is the countermeasure research for the agricultural drought. The main countermeasure includes: establishing a correct drought mitigation concepts, enhancing drought forecasting, setting up an avoiding-drought agriculture, sharpening construction of water conservancy works, developing water-preservation agriculture, sharpening the management of agricultural drought disaster, strengthen the construction of ecological environment.