Study On Passenger Volume Forecasting Of Inter-city Rapid Rail

Urban agglomeration of our country inclined to more and more obvious in recent years, but central city and peripheral city lack better horizontal connection,the structural defection of city traffic is more outstanding too,the space accessibility between central city and peripheral city is bad.At this moment,the intercity rail transportation depends on its characters such as large-capacity,convenient,comfortable,punctuality,high frequency arises at this historic moment.At the same time,the passenger flow forecast is the foundation of rail transit investment decision-making,only when there has enough passenger transport demand,the rail transit investment construction maybe is reasonable.Passenger flow forecast is a key indicator to weigh the basic project economic cost and economic benefit after a project puts into service. Study on passenger flow forecasting methods for Intercity fast rail transit has just started in our country,meanwhile,social activities system,traffic transportation system and the flow of passengers predict background and content are very complicated,make flow of passengers predict have certain difficulty,how to predict it based on the basis four steps predict model and how to choose the models combining the characteristics of the intercity and in-city trip modes and trip characteristics of the intercity and in-city,is a problem that is worth studying rationally。The paper has analyzed the present situation and achievement of domestic and overseas rail transit passenger flow forecast.Base on analyzing the characteristics of the intercity and incity trip modes and trip characteristics of the intercity and in-city.The article uses four stages forecast method to forecast passenger flow,with comparing each forecast model。Trip generation forecasting model selects traffic rate method elastic coefficient method,adjusts of computed results;On the steps of traffic distribution and mode-split,the paper separates the passenger flow into two parts,the intercity and in-city,adopts modified gravity model and logit model based on generalized cost respectively;Traffic assignment adopts dynamic multi-route probability assignment based on generalized cost.At last the paper analysis the reliability of passenger volume forecast and the rationality of forecast results.