The Study On Navigational Dynamic Risk Of LNG Carrier In The Dapeng Bay

The most important material for economic and social development is energy.The demand for energy of China grows quickly with the rapid development of Chinese economy. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is a kind of clean, efficient energy, whose proportion in energy structure is increasing year by year. Most of the natural gas of China relies on imports. Part of the commerce of liquefied natural gas is transported by LNG carrier. LNG carrier is a kind of high danger vessel. Once a collision or grounding accident happens and the energy reaches at a certain value of LNG carrier, it will have a hole and then leak, cause tremendous influence to the ship, waterway and the port.The independent study of accident probability and consequence is applied to the domestic and foreign navigational risk of LNG carrier research.Some related mathematical models are applied to identify the accident probability, and simulation technology is used for the judgment of the consequences of accident. Simulating the accident scene and estimating the extent of the loss. Different from the existing methods, the thesis takes the accident probability and the accident consequence of LNG carrier into consideration, the navigational risk while sailing is studied. The research results is an important way for MSA to understand the navigational risk of LNG carrier, is a reference for the proposed navigational management measures of the LNG carrier and of important significance for the safety navigation of LNG carner.The thesis studies the navigational risk taking the Dapeng Bay of Shenzhen port for example. The route, type and speed of ship and other navigation data of the research water is derived based on the actual investigation. In this thesis, the navigable water of the Dapeng Bay is divided into42grid cells. According to AIS data, the ship flow and traffic distribution function is arrived. IWRAP model is used to calculate the collision accident probability and Pedersen model is used to calculate the grounding probability of LNG carrier. The casualty probability is arrived according to the leakage hole caused by the collision and grounding accident. Considering the traffic control and traffic maintenance, the adjustment coefficient is introduced to adjuste the navigational risk. Main research results include:1. The collision and grounding probability accident probability model is compared. Adjustment coefficient is introduced into navigational risk calculation model of LNG carrier according to the actual sailing characteristics.2. The Dapeng Bay water is selected as an example and navigational risk model is used. The calculation result shows that navigationgal risk level of LNG carrier in the Dapeng Bay is acceptable in the existing navigational order based on the calculation results of dynamic risk.3. The influence of the speed of ships for navigation risk is studied. The results show that the navigation risk of LNG carrier decreases with the increase of LNG carrier and decreases with the decrease of other ships within a certain speed range.