Study On Theory And Method Of Risk Management Of Train Operation Conflict On High Speed Railway

Due to the advantage of high speed, high rated passenger capacity, strong ability of transportation, punctuality rate, comfortable and convenient and forth, high-speed railway can contribute to the economic development of the regional along the line and speed up the adjustment of industrial structure, therefore the development of high-speed railway is being supported strongly by government, then more and more new lines are to be established. However the risks of high-speed rail operation and the associated losses have emerged gradually with the use of the lines.As a fast-growing emerging industry, the domestic study of high-speed rail operational risk management has not formed a system yet. Aiming for fill this gap, the paper makes a dialectical analysis of the relationship between risk factors, risk accidents and risk losses, furthermore introduces a latest model of risk management based on the realistic significance that there’s a urgent need to bring the risk management into the high-speed railway traffic security system. Then the paper focus on the analysis of conflict risk during high-speed train running, and lists the basic flow of conflict risk management of high-speed train running. Including:how to identify conflict risk of high-speed train running, how to analyze and evaluate conflict risk of high-speed train running, how to control conflict risk of high-speed train running. Finally, the planning of conflict risk management system of high-speed train running is discussed.At first, the risk factors of high-speed train running conflict are work out by researching; secondly using the factors as calculation weights of evaluation index by AHP to prioritize the weights, the value of basic indicators evaluation and the degree of membership are got by scoring method, then a comprehensive evaluation index system of high-speed train running is given by the use of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, which can do a comprehensive evaluation of high-speed train running, finally the major railway accident is used to test the reliability of the management system of high-speed rail trains running conflict risk. Based on the evaluation results, rationalization proposals are given to control conflict risk of high-speed trains running. Finally, a direction of further research about high-speed train running conflict risk management is brought up.