| China’s economy has made significant achievements since the Reform and Opening-up. However, the industrialization and urbanization also brought a large quantity of greenhouse gas emission, which imposed great pressure to China’s environment. Meanwhile, the15th contracting party conference for UNFCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) was held in Copenhagen in December,2009, marking the architecture of the international carbon emission reduction mechanism has formally established which forced countries to put carbon abatement on the agenda. As the largest developing country, China clearly committed that the carbon emission per unit of GDP in2020will decrease by40%-45%compared to2005, and the proportion of non-fossil fuels in energy consumption will reach15%. Low-carbon transformation is not only a severe challenge but also a good opportunity to our country. The export trade has been one of the most shining spots in China’s economy during the last three decades, and the export of high technology industry is even more eye-catching, for it is the direction of the upgrading of export structure as well as the example of the extensive trade margin. Analyzing how carbon abatement affects the export of high-tech industry is to find an optimal way to make export trade grow steadily, to achieve low-carbon economy, as well as to offer suggestions to upgrade the structure of exportation. Clarifying how carbon abatement affects the exportation of high-tech industry is also of great significance when our government is faced with carbon tax policy, industrial policy, export policy, and diplomatic negotiations.Firstly, this dissertation makes a preliminary analysis of China’s high technology industry based on RCA index and G-I, index, and finds out that China still ranks low in international specialization status. Besides, this dissertation builds a model of the determinants of China’s high-tech industry export within the framework of the new trade theory and endogenous growth, and finds out that the scale of industry, R&D, the degree of market competition, and the development efficiency of new products, can promote the export of China’s high-tech industry significantly, while capital intensity plays an opposite role, which reveals that China’s export of high-tech products rely mostly on cost advantage brought by cheap labor and is just a "statistical illusion".Secondly, this dissertation analyzes the current situation of China’s energy consumption and carbon emission, and then studies on the influencing factors of China’s carbon emission basing on factors decomposition of Kaya identity and STIRPAT model. It finds out that social affluence, industrial technology level, government activity, and energy consumption structure, are significant factors that influence carbon emission, while population, investment in fixed assets, industrial structure, and the degree of openness, are not. Combined with the previous conclusion, this dissertation analyzes the medium between carbon abatement and high-tech industry export, and then uses mathematical deduction and qualitative analysis to reveal the mechanism of how carbon abatement affects high-tech industry export.Thirdly, this dissertation quantifies the restraint of carbon abatement, and uses co-integration analysis, error correction model, and Granger causality test, to research on how carbon abatement influences high-tech industry export from empirical aspects. A negative correlation is found between carbon abatement and the export of high-tech industry. Nevertheless, this negative effect can be converted into positive effect in the long term, provided there are effective policies and appropriate enterprise development plans.Last but not least, this dissertation offers suggestions to promote the export of China’s high technology industry under the restraint of carbon abatement, from the perspective of trade strategy, industrial policy, and enterprise development plan. |
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