A Case Study On The Evaluation And Prediction Methods Of Land Comprehensive Carrying Capacity

Land resources is the most basic material production conditions for the survivalof humans, and also the most important premise of human development. As thepopulation increase and the irrational use of land, land pollution and destruction isgetting more and more serious. Overdose of floating population to the city,industrialization and urbanization cause the urban land system pressure is bigger andbigger. Some city’s actual land bearing load capacity has been endangered or beyond areasonable level. Therefore, in order to guarantee the sustainable use of land resources,and realize the coordinated development of population, environment and resources,land comprehensive carrying capacity research has become an important issue in thecity management.In this paper, the theory and technology and methods of comprehensive carryingcapacity of land are studied, and18cities in Henna Province as an example to beapplicated. Comprehensive use of environmental planning study, economics,systematics knowledge, from the overall of ecological system, coordinated therelationships between the population, economy, society and the land resource。Thisstudy not only have improved the land of scientific research, but also provided ascientific method of calculating for the land comprehensive carrying capacity, andprovided practical guidance for the coordinated development of the city.Firstly, a systematic study of the theory of the land comprehensive carryingcapacity, including the definition of boundaries, research advances, the currentproblems, the task facing. Then conducted in-depth evaluation of the landcomprehensive carrying capacity, selected analytic hierarchy process for assessment.Consider a variety of factors that affect land, the scientific construction of the indexsystem, and given the regional land comprehensive carrying capacity calculationmethods in detail.Predict the future of the region’s comprehensive land bearing capacity, using themethod of system dynamics and scenario analysis approach to the study. Population-economy-environment-land system model using system dynamics tool Vensimsoftware to create and constantly revised model, and gradually improve, until thevalidity of the model is verified to use. Binding region of the actual situation, set theprofile, the use of the model simulation analysis. Operating results and then the status quo evaluation of computational methods to predict future regional land carryingcapacity.Finally, case of Henan Province, the study conducted a comprehensive evaluationof the land carrying capacity of18cities, and had spatial analysis and assessmentresults. Then selected three representative cities, set four kinds of developmentscenarios for the simulation by comparison of the simulation results. And found toimprove the land carrying capacity, it is recommended that the city’s futuredevelopment need to set the appropriate concentration of population scale, moderatereduce the growth rate of the secondary industry, optimize the industrial structure,while increasing environmental governance efforts, so as to ensure the coordinateddevelopment between the land and population, economic, social.