The Analysis Of The Impact Of Urbanization On Carbon Emission In Shanghai

Shanghai is in a stage of rapid development of urbanization, the growing urban population, Gradual upgrade of consumption structure of urban residents and the rapid development of urbaninfrastructure construction. At the same time, carbon emissions in Shanghai increased year by year, continued growth in energy consumption and waste emissions have greatly limited the development of the city and the improvement of people’s living standards, the Contradiction among economic and social development and environmental protection have become increasingly prominent. Therefore, understand and study of the relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions, explore the countermeasures and ways of harmonious development of urbanization and the ecological environment, and promote the healthy development of urban ecosystems have become a very urgent task before us.This research bases on calculate and analysis of carbon dioxide emissions and urban development of Shanghai from1999to2010, uses the theory of cointegration analysis, cointegration analyze of the relationship between urbanization rate and carbon emissions in Shanghai, the results show that there is a long-term stable cointegration relationship between Shanghai’s urbanization and carbon emissions, the coefficient of elasticity of Shanghai urbanization level of carbon emission levels is3.532,urbanization is the Granger cause of carbon emissions. Through analyze the connection between Kaya identity and urbanization indicators,choose fators of Resident population,The aging rate, GDP per capita, The proportion of tertiary industry to GDP(%),Engel coefficient, Primary energy consumption, Energy structure coefficient, Energy intensity, The average carbon emission coefficient,Carbon emission intensity,edt. Summarized as population factors, economic factors, energy factors and technical factors.analyze the cointegration relationship between those factors and carbon emission, the results show that each of those factors has a long-term stable cointegration relationship with carbon emission. Resident population, GDP per capita, Primary energy consumption and carbon emission intensity have positive flexible coefficient on carbon emissions, Respectively3.663、0.614、1.057、4.331; while The aging rate, Engel coefficient, Energy structure coefficient,Energy intensity and The average carbon emission coefficient have negative flexible coefficient on carbon emissions,were-0.454、-0.017、-0.059、-4.005、-16.793. It can clearly been seen that increase the resident population and Primary energy consumption have a great impact on raising the level of carbon emissions, while elevate Energy intensity and The average carbon emission coefficient can effectively inhibit the growth of carbon emissions, and other factors have no significant effect on carbon emissions.Lastly, give some comments and suggestions on development of urbanization and low-carbon economy in Shanghai.