| Personal emission reduction is an important movement for facing climate change and public participation in green development from personal level. In this research, methodology and empirical study for personal carbon allowance estimation are both proposed based on the hypothesis of introducing personal carbon trading system (PCT). Based on the current situation that residents consumption levels and patterns have become new growth points of China’s creasing carbon emissions, to build a perfect personal carbon trading mechanism is needed (has become imminent; extremely urgent; hard pressed). The proposed method would be both theoretically and practically significance on solving variety important problems involved in the introduction of personal carbon trading system in the future.Personal carbon allowance is carbon emission target or baseline or upper limit which is an initial result of allocation on carbon emission rights and free distribution for individual. Based on this idea and the related literatures, first,4primary equity principles (Basic demand principle, payment ability principle, responsibility principle and welfare principle) are selected as theoretical basis for the allocation of carbon allowance. The four typical equity principles cover equity of all stages in the allocation process, which is stated-based equity, process-based equity and outcome-based equity. Meanwhile, we advanced multi-equity principle and considered the four equity principles as sub-principle of multi-equity principle respectively. Then, theoretical models are established for calculating allowances corresponding different principles. Furthermore, consider the connection between the4principles integratly and the common characterisitics of ambiguous boundaries on qualitative indicators, binary comparison sort and group observations focus in fuzzy decision method are employed to quantize the weight of each equity principle and finally find the value of allowance under the view of multi-equity principle. As an empirical study,212samples are selected for model estimation. The questionnaire conveys residents’basic life necessities of clothing, food, shelter and weans of travel, etc., specifically including water, electricity, gas and other energy consumption, public transportation and private car travel, waste generation, as well as other indirect carbon emission, then using carbon conversion factors issued by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China, the Taiwan Bureau of Energy, Conservation International and the GHG Protocol, account the annual carbon emissions of the212samples. In order to measure the fairness degree of the4sub-principles, we observed the212respondents consideration on this issue. Then, according to the4sub-principles, as results, first, we could calculate the corresponding values of allowances according to each sub-principles are3.63tons,0.68tons,12.51tons and1.01tons; Secondly, employing binary comparison sort and group observations focus, could quantize the weight of each sub-principle is0.259,0.238,0.237,0.266; finally, by assigning weights to the respective value of each sub-principle, Ultimately, we get the initial quota for the personal carbon emission allowance could be estimated as4.3tons based on the perspective of fairness.According to this allowance of4.3tons, we presented further discussion from three dimensions of quantities, the market supply and demand, and model itself. From the quantitative analysis, it didn’t pose any threat to China’s carbon emission reduction targets. Meanwhile, compared with4.25tons at abroad, Chinese residents could get benefits from personal carbon trading system in the future; from the perspective of supply and demand market,4.3tons will result in333.93tons of carbon supply and434.96tons of carbon demand among the212respondents, and then we infer that the value of allowance is not the same at any time, but will be adjusted by the market as the market price changes; from the model itself, welfare principle is considered to be the most fair in4sub-principle due to the fairness degree has biggest contribution to the multi-equity principle, which indirectly reflects people have more characteristics of "economic man" and consider more about the profits that the carbon allowance would bring them. At the same time, by comparing the values of carbon allowances corresponding to the4sub-principles, we found there is a clear gap between12.51tons according to responsibility principle and0.68tons set by payment ability principle. This issue demonstrates the current Chinese carbon emissions has greatly exceeded their income level. |
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