Consumer Inventory Of Personal Carbon Emission Allowance And Hybrid Electric Vehicle Purchase Decision

Based on the rapid advancement of urbanization in China in the past one or two decades and the development of the automotive industry,families and individuals are increasingly demanding and purchasing more and more private cars.At the same time,the increasing vehicle ownership and the increase in personal transportation travel demand have also caused China to become the world's leading emitter of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases,a series of carbon emission-related energy-saving policies,such as carbon tax,Carbon emission trading between enterprises,etc.,in line with the promotion of various new energy vehicles using the latest power technology,is changing a series of energy choices such as individual consumers' travel and car purchase.Among them,the personal carbon allowance trading system,as an allowance trading mechanism in the consumer side,has the same emission reduction efficiency to other current emission reduction policies.Meanwhile,it also has a more apparent economic incentive effect on individual consumer's decision-making through its creative concept of "cap-and-trade".Therefore,this paper attempts to study issues related to the personal carbon allowance trading system and consumer transportation choices,and discuss,classify,and complement the research in related fields and contribute to them.The specific research contents mainly include:(1)Based on the discrete choice model,analyze the consumer vehicle purchase and operation costs,and then establish an optimal selection model for consumers to select either new energy vehicles or conventional fuel-powered vehicles.Then,based on the theory of emission rights trading,we analyze the supply and demand curves of carbon dioxide emission allowance under the individual carbon allowance trading system,and derive the equilibrium carbon price under the market clearing conditions and explore the key influencing factors and its effects.Specifically,we study whether a carbon allowance price can or need to meet some conditions to motivate consumers to adopt green behaviors and consider buying new energy vehicles.Through the empirical data,we further analyze the impact factors of the government's cost-effective subsidies for energy-saving vehicles and provide a theoretical basis for the specific vehicle compensation quota design.The study found that the equilibrium carbon allowance price will become a key factor in the decision-making of consumers' new energy vehicle purchases.In the long run,by purchasing new energy vehicles to improve fuel efficiency,it can significantly reduce individual travel carbon emissions and save carbon emission costs.On the other hand,gasoline prices and interest rates significantly affect the carbon subsidy quota policy,but the impact is not the same.Gasoline prices have a negative impact on carbon subsidies,whereas interest rates have a positive impact on it.(2)According to the actual situation of China's new energy vehicle market purchase,considering the factors such as time and oil price fluctuations,the static economic model of the above-mentioned consumer purchase selection research is extended to the long-term and dynamic automobile redemption decision model.Then use the dynamic programming method to explore the impact of the above factors on consumers' willingness to redeem new energy vehicles and the corresponding government subsidy effect.It has important reference significance for the future pricing of energy-saving vehicles and the regulation of vehicle compensation.The study found that subsidies provided by the government are significantly promoting the new energy vehicle's popularization.Similarly,the depreciation of idle vehicle,using and maintenance costs also significantly affect their replacement purchase time.When maintenance costs increase significantly year by year,consumers are more inclined to consider replacement purchase of new energy vehicles.In addition,consumer replacement decisions are sensitive to gasoline price fluctuations.In areas where oil prices are relatively stable,more consumers have reason to replace their conventional fuel-powered vehicles.The government should consider the corresponding policies for stabilizing oil prices to promote new energy vehicles and ultimately achieve the goal of energy conservation and emission reduction.(3)Introducing consumer psychological consumption behavior,according to the mental accounting theory and the newsvendor model,establish a consumer carbon allowance inventory decision model under the individual carbon allowance trading system,abandon the real-time trading hypothesis in the literature,and analyze the relative influencing factors of the pre-purchased quantity of emission allowances in the case of uncertain future travel demand and carbon emission utility.The results of the study show that compared with the fixed purchase demand scenario,the uncertain travel demand increases the number of consumer allowance orders,and the demand in the carbon market increases.This is not in line with theconsensus on decision-making literaturethat states demand uncertainty reduces inventory.The reason is that in the consumer inventory decision,the consumer's psychological "cost-benefit"associations affect the perceived payment cost,resulting in the final purchase quantity deviating from the theoretical utility maximization decision.Unknown travel demand,coupled with the unknown carbon emissions utility,has weakened the "benefit-cost"path utility of consumers,inducing consumers to underestimate the cost of purchasing allowance.Conversely,when the price of allowance increases,the consumer's"cost-benefit" path utility is weakened,leading consumers to pay more attention to the feelings of payment,thereby reducing the amount of allowance inventory.