| China has maintained rapid economic growth during the last decades with the hugedevelopment of industry and the largest number of employees in history. Economic growthand social development are all supported by the continual and advanced safety capability, butthe safety condition in China is now below expection. Poor safety capability leads to the highrisk of industrial accidents. To reverse the status, study on the regulation of accident isrequired for safety decision making and accident prevention.This dissertation aimed at presenting a research of factor characteristics analysis,quantitative modeling methods and prevention of major accident, and finally reached thefollowing conclusions on the basic of the research.(1)An overview of the major accident evolution model basic on energy release wasprovided to describe how an accident occurs, deteriorates, diffuses and recovers, and also theinfluence of effect factors on the four different stages during accident evolution.(2)The quantitative characteristics analysis method of accident effect factors wasprovided basic on combination of hierarchical decomposition, binary quantization of factorsand matrix operations, and basic on which traffic and fire accidents occurred in China wereanalyzed.(3)The principle of multiple layer and factors modeling was explored and basic on whicha quantitative analysis model for description of the relationship between accident effectfactors and consequence was established. On the basic of three-layer decomposition of effectfactors, the IAHP Method and the Multiple Regression Model were used for setting thequantitative relationships between three layers of factors and finally linked the base factors tothe accident consequences. Data forcasting method of this quantitative analysis model wasalso presented based on Grey Model. Some accident data was collected and case study wasapplied by this quantified methodology to validate its worthy of application in engineering.(4)An overview intervention pattern and a decision making model for major accidentprevention were constructed based on PDCA cycle and control system framework. Theevaluation model for relative significance of risk factors was built by the principle ofcatastrophe progression method, and the analysis of the relative significance of major traffic and fire accidents in China was carried out.(5)Based on the characteristic and the evaluation result of risk factors, preventioncountermeasures were proposed for major traffic and fire accidents in China, includingstrategies and measures for education, training, standardization, supervision, technical meansand hidden risk control. |
