The Climate Change And Its Response To Global Oscillation Index In Yi Bin During 64 Years

Based on long series temperature, precipitation and relative humidity data, and the data of the three global oscillation index: Southern Oscillation Index(SOI), North Atlantic Oscillation Index(NAOI), Arctic Oscillation Index(AOI) during 1951~2014, morlet wavelet analysis, Mann-Kendall test, R/S analysis, correlation analysis and regression analysis are used to study the interannual climate change, the seasonal climate change, the change on oscillation index and the climate change on the response of the global oscillation index. Some cnclusions were drawn as follws:1)Four seasons only autumn temperature have obvious rise in the study region, its rise to 0.128℃/10 a,the other three seasons changes didn’t pass the confidence interval. There are 8a, 11 a and 51 a period in the temperature series in spring, and the primary period is 51a; There are 3a, 6a, 14 a and 18 a periods in the temperature series in summer, and the primary period is 18a; There are 6a, 11 a and 31 a perids in the temperature series in autumn, and the primary period is 31a; There are 3a, 8a and 18 a perids in the temperature series in winter, and the primary period is 8a. Four seasons only summer and autumn precipitation have obvious decline in the study region, their decline to 17.31mm/10 a and 26.264mm/10 a, the other three seasons changes didn’t pass the confidence interval. There are 4a, 12 a, 18 a and 33 a period in the precipitation series in spring, and the primary period is 33a; There are 3a, 7a, 15 a and 34 a periods in the precipitation series in summer, and the primary period is 15a; There are 5a, 12 a and 27 a perids in the precipitation series in autumn, and the primary period is 12a; There are 4a, 6a, 11 a and 25 a perids in the precipitation series in winter, and the primary period is 11 a. Four seasons only summer and autumn relative humidity have obvious decline in the study region, their decline to 0.87169/10 a and 0.84231/10 a, the other three seasons changes didn’t pass the confidence interval. There are 3a, 11 a and 39 a period in the relative humidity series in spring, and the primary period is 39a; There are 4a, 6a and 34 a periods in the relative humidity series in summer, and the primary period is 34a; There are 4a, 8a, 13 a and 33 a perids in the relative humidity series in autumn, and the primary period is 33a; There are 3a, 12 a and 26 a perids in the relative humidity series in winter, and the primary period is 26 a.2)In the study region, annual average temperature change has a significant rise, its rise to 0.0793℃/10 a, and annual precipitation and annual average relative humidity changes have significant declines, their declines to 57.3mm/10 a and 0.567/10 a. The abrupt change of temperature happens in 2002, precipitation in 1982, relative humidity in 2005. The Hurst indexs of temperature, precipitation and relative humidity are all between 0~0.5, so the future development trend in contrast to the trend of the past. There are 3.5a, 7.5a, 27 a and 55 a periods in the temperature series, and the primary period is 55a; There are 3a, 5a, 7a, 12 a and 30 a perids in the precipitation series, and the primary period is 12a; There are 3a, 10 a and 36 a perids in the relative humidity series, and the primary period is 36 a.3)The change trend of SOI and NAOI didn’t pass the confidence interval; the change trend of AOI has a significant rise, its rise to 0.056/10 a, the abrupt change of AOI happens on 1975; The Hurst indexs of AOI is between 0~0.5, so the future development trend in contrast to the trend of the past. There are 5.5a, 12 a, and 13 a periods in the SOI series, and the primary period is 12a; There are 4a, 13 a and 47 a perids in the NAOI series, and the primary period is 47a; There are 2a, 4a, 9a and 19 a perids in the AOI series, and the primary period is 9a.4)By wavelet reconstruction data, respectively by the temperature, precipitation, relative humidity of oscillation index correlation analysis and regression analysis, discuss the multiple time scales the relationship between the climate change and the oscillation index. The increase of time scale, meteorological data and the correlation between the oscillation index is significant, especially in 32 a is the best scale. The increase of time scales, the fit of the regression model of the higher. SOI strongest correlation with relative,NAOI was the strongest correlation with precipitation and AOI was the strongest correlation with temperature.