Embodied Technical Change And Its Impact On Economic Growth Of China

Embodied technical change promotes economic growth mainly by improving capital quality and capital productivity.Since the 1980 s,with the large-scale increase of equipment investment,the embodied technical change integrated with equipment investment has gradually highlighted its contribution to economic growth.But how to peel embodied technical change contained in the capital investment is still a frontier with difficulty,based on this,this paper established a CES production function including construction capital and equipment capital,constructing capital quality index,deducted mathematically the formation mechanism of embodied technical change and its contribution to economic growth,and used the method of nonlinear seemingly unrelated regression to estimate capital quality index,calibrated the national,industrial and regional embodied technical change.Secondly,using panel data fixed effect model,panel-corrected standard deviation model and quantile regression,tested the influence of equipment investment,independent research and development and foreign technology spillover on China's embodied technical change.Finally,Markov vector autoregressive model(MS-VAR),Panel vector autoregressive model(PVAR)and Panel threshold regression model were used to systematically investigate the dynamic correlation between embodied technical change and economic growth,and the time series of contribution of embodied technical change to economic growth in China from 1980 to 2016 is calculated.The implications are:Firstly,embodied technical change and economic growth model construction and capital quality index measurement.This paper first establishes the nested CES production function including construction capital and equipment capital,and investigates the relationship between embodied technical change and economic growth.The results show that the economic growth of a country depends on the marginal efficiency of capital,embodied technical change,construction capital and equipment capital production efficiency of production,and neutral technology change.The non-linear seemingly unrelated method is further used to estimate the capital quality index,and to estimate embodied technical change of the whole country and different industries and regions.Calculated result shows that embodied technical change presents characteristics of three stages growth,respectively is 1980-1994,when the volatility of the growth stage,1994-2015,the rapid growth stage and steady stage after 2015,overall,China's capital quality and embodied technical change improve year by year,showing that China's economic output was increased along with the improvement of the quality at the same time.The results show that there are significant differences in embodied technical change of heterogeneous industries.The estimated embodied technical change of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry,fishery,construction industry,manufacturing industry and financial industry are respectively 0.6400,3.483,5.4398 and 15.9187.It indicating that among the four selected industries,the embodied technical change of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery is relatively low,while that of the financial industry is relatively large,and there are obvious differences in the embodied technical change among industries.According to the measurement of regional embodied technical change,due to the differentiated equipment investment structure among regions,there are obvious differences in the embodied technical change among regions,and the gap between regions shows an expanding trend.Beijing,Shanghai,Chongqing,Jiangsu province,Shandong province,Fujian province,Jiangxi province,Henan province,Sichuan province,Ningxia Hui Autonomous region and other ten provinces and cities,the proportion of equipment capital investment in regional GDP increased year by year,embodied technical change has made significant progress.The proportion of equipment investment in GDP in economically developed Guangdong province,Zhejiang province and other regions is low,and the rising trend is not obvious,while the rise of embodied technical change does not significant.However,in northeast China,Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces,and Hebei province,the embodied technical change has declined significantly.Secondly,this paper used the Panel data fixed effects model,panel-corrected standard deviation model and quantile regression to research on the impact of the equipment investment,independent research and development,and foreign technology spillover on embodied technical change,found the equipment investment,independent research and development,and foreign technology spillover showed significant difference in overall embodied technical change equipment investment,independent research and development can significantly accelerate the embodied technical change of China,while foreign technology did not show a positive spillover effect,significantly inhibit embodied technical change in China,further according to the different level of capital quality estimation showing that,The higher the capital quality index,the stronger the inhibiting effect of foreign direct investment on embodied technical change.According to analysis of influencing factors in various regions,they are significant different.The eastern region independent R&D and embodied technical change has significantly positive correlation,embodied technical change showed the significant characteristics of self-developed motivated and eastern equipment investment is not effective to promote embodied technical change.The central and western regions showed the opposite characteristics,showing significant equipment investment driving,while the effect of independent research and development investment is not significant.From the analysis of time trend results,the elasticity of R&D input to the capital quality index in 2007-2016 was higher than that in 1997-2006,but the improvement was not obvious,indicating that the independent R&D in China did not have an obvious effect on the improvement of capital quality in the past 20 years.Thirdly,MS-VAR model has been used to study relations between embodied technical change and economic growth,found that economic growth and embodied technical change exhibit the coordinated development with double regime dynamic characteristics,within the bi-regime system,embodied technical change and economic growth present positive correlation,but in low growth regime the positive correlation is better than high growth regime.The influence of embodied technical change on economic growth has the characteristics of a single threshold.When the embodied technical change exceeds a certain threshold,the positive influence of the embodied technical change on economic growth will increase,that is,the ladder effect.When the embodied technical change exceeds the threshold,economic growth will be promoted.The results show that the sensitivity of embodied technical change to economic growth in different regions is obviously different,showing a trend of gradual increase in the east,the middle and the west part of China.From the perspective of industry,the influence of embodied technical change on economic growth also has the characteristics of single threshold.The sensitivity of output in manufacturing industry,construction industry,agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry,fishery industry and financial industry to embodied technical change decrease.It is further calculated that the annual contribution of China's embodied technical change to economic growth from 1980 to 2016.on average from 1981 to 1990 is 13% and 15% on average from 1995 to 2016.The contribution of embodied technical change to economic growth is periodic,and the volatility is gradually decreasing.