Research On Regulations Of Droughts Distribution Pattern And Trends Forecasting In West Of Jilin Province

Floods, drought and water shortage, water environment degradation, the threemajor water issues facing our country in the twenty-first century. A result of watershortages due to drought and water shortage has gradually become an important factorrestricting the social and economic sustainable development. Drought is a westernJilin Province is the most frequent meteorological disasters, industrial and agriculturalproduction, water use and ecological balance is very unfavorable. In order to avoid tocontinue to suffer the distress of the drought disaster research Jilin Province, thewestern plains with drought disasters law becomes particularly important.Jilin Province is located in the central part of northeast China,which hassignificant differencesof topography.Western Jilin Province belongs to Songnen Plainin the southwest, and it is in the temperate semi-humid climate to a semi-arid climatetransition zone.It is obviously that continental monsoon climate, light, wind energyresources are relativelyabundant, and heat, precipitation, relative shortage of resources,can easily lead tometeorological disasters.The west in Jilin province include twoprefecture-level city,Baicheng and Songyuan,and under the jurisdiction of twoprefecture-level city there include several counties,that is Zhenlai County, Taonan,Da’an City, Tongyu County, Taobei, Qian’an County,Qianguo County, ChanglingCounty, etc.(city, district), the area is about43779km2, and annual precipitationbetween300~500mm, resulting in frequent occurrence of drought disasters in thewestern region. Especially in spring and summer drought the high frequency ofserious impact to the western areas of agriculture, ecology and use of water resources,but also has nine years of spring drought "one said. In recent decades, the impacts andlosses caused by droughts and floods are more serious.Therefore, it is more importantsignificanceto master of the distribution of drought in western Jilin Province disasterand predict the evelopment trends of drought disasters.This study based on the ecologically fragile areas of the west in Jilin provinceselect five observation points in the region(Baicheng、 Tongyu、 Qian’an、Changling、Fuyu), and select the Z factor as a drought index,which is represented bya typical area.Make use of the software Risk Simulator of Monte Carlo tools as rawdata to Z factor of58years and itsdistribution analysis tools, distribute the pattern ofdrought. This study reveal the distribution pattern of the law of the drought in thewestern Jilin Province,an described the trends of drought in the westen Jilin provincefragile zones.In addition,decrease the affect by using Wavelet BP Artificial NeuralNetwork model to predict the typical district of Jilin Province, western drought year,drought mitigation for Jilin Provincedisasters.