The Rainfall Distribution Pattern And The Prediction Of Drought And Flood Of Songhua River Basin In Jilin Province Based On The Monte Carlo

Water, as one of the most indispensable materials, is also precious naturalresources for industrial, agricultural and economic development. With the rapideconomic growth, water used for industry and agriculture has increased substantially,and water scarcity has become a prominent problem to solve. As one of the sevenmajor rivers in china, Songhua River water system is one of the largest rivers in Jilinprovince. On top of that, it is also one of the most important water storage and supplysources in Jilin province. The total span of Songhua River Basin is range from theHeavenly Lake to the Sancha River in Songyuan City, about958km long, and cover73,749square kilometers area. Through the Antu County, Fusong County,DunhuaCity, Huadian City, Jingyu County, Jiaohe City, Jilin City, Yongji County, Jiutai City,Shulan City, Dehui City, Yushu City, Fuyu County, Fuyu County, Nongan County,Qianguo County, Songyuan City. The terrain of the basin is complex and climatediverse obviously. Specifically, the upstream areas has larger precipitation, istemperate humid monsoon region. Then as the most economical developed regions,the middle areas, its rainfall precipitation is relatively lower compared to the upstreamareas, that is semi-humid monsoon region. As for the downstream areas (the south ofSongnen Plain), due to its long distance from the sea, the climate present obviouscontinental, more evaporation, less precipitation phenomena, is the semiarid area inJilin province. Songhua River Basin is not only the major industrial and agriculturalarea in jilin province but also the concentrated area of city. However, the huge climatedifferences have led to the high frequency of floods upstream and severe droughtproblems downstream. According to the data analysis of average annual rainfallprecipitation in Songhua River basin of seven typically prefecture-level cities, thepresent paper reveal the type of rainfall precipitation distribution patterns of variousregions, predict the flooding upstream and drought downstream. Research results asfollow:1. Take Changchun city as an example, we calculate the rainfall Precipitationanomaly percentage and the Z index in53years (1956-2008) respectively. Accordingto the level of flood and drought, divide the years into flood and drought. Z index issuperior then the precipitation anomaly percentage, and the Z index is much closer toactual value. 2. Use the Risk Simulator software generating distributed pattern of sevenregional precipitation Z index data. According to the K-S test and P-Value sort thedistribution pattern. Analyze the distribution type parameter. We can know that theCauchy distribution of Baishan city, the T distribution of Yanbian KoreanAutonomous Prefecture, the normal distribution of Jilin City, Siping City, LiaoyuanCity, Changchun City, and the Maximum value distribution of Songyuan City.3. Use RS software, we can get the PDF basing on the distribution type, and theCDF, the ICDF of the upstream and downstream basin. Also, we forecast the floodand the drought trend.4. Use ARMA model of SPSS software to predict the precipitation of2013to2015in the four typical Songhua River Basin areas (Jilin City, Yanbian KoreanAutonomous Prefecture, Baishan city, Songyuan City). And the model of Baishan andSongyuan Citycity is ARMA (2,2), than the model of Jilin City and Yanbian KoreanAutonomous Prefecture is ARMA (1,1).